After difficult year, parties turn to General Election in September

Press, 5 January 1987, Page 16

After difficult year, parties turn to General Election in September

OLIVER RIDDELL

in Wellington

1987 is election year; the policies of the Labour Government which in three years have turned life in New Zealand on its head will be either accepted or rejected by voters. 1984 was the year of decisions, 1985 the year of action, 1986 the year of consequences, and 1987 will be the year of judg ment. Because it was scheduled to be the year of consequences, 1986 was always going to be difficult for Labour. It did not have a good year, but then neither did the National Party or the Democratic Party. They failed to capitalise on most of the many embarrassments that came Labour’s way and so Labour had an easier time in Government than it had any right to expect. There is hardly a facet of New Zealand life that has not seen sweeping change since Labour came to office in July, 1984. Yet the mayhem it has caused in people’s lives still has a large measure of support from the public. It has had a 30-month honeymoon.

Two factors have restrained general criticism — change was long overdue, and the pain of change at the personal level has been matched by the pride of change in two of the big issues. New Zealand has moved from a condition of alignment with the Western alliance to semi-align-ment. It has avoided the demands from its own Left wing for non-alignment and kept the Left wing happy by seeming to be the butt of abuse from the United States, Britain, and Australia. This has allowed the Government to have its cake and eat it too over defence matters. All its critics told the Government it could not do this, but it has. It is lucky that the conservative regimes in Washington and London over-reacted, so looking like big bullies, while the socialist regime in Canberra has under-reacted, thus keeping a viable defence future open. Labour has moved far enough on this issue to pacify its Left wing while not alienating defence hawks who still want

A.N.Z.U.S. operational. On the other issue of economic reform, it has moved far enough to pacify finance and industry, without alienating too many public servants and trade unionists who preferred a sheltered economy and a regimented work force. If this sounds like a slick political act then that is just what it is. Labour has had a lot of good luck too. It had one-off. excitements like the French bombing of the Rainbow Warrior in Auckland harbour, the Chernobyl nuclear accident, and now the America’s Cup yacht races off Perth. It is not too fanciful to think that the result of the next election may depend on whether New Zealand wins the America's Cup. Labour has also been lucky in the civil wars raging in both its main opponents. At last the Democrats were able to dump the exhausted Mr Bruce Beetham, and replace him with Mr Neil Morrison. But just as Mr Morrison was starting to heal the wounds that follow a slide in the public opinion polls

from 30 per cent to 2 per cent, Mr Garry Knapp announced his intention not to retire after all.

Now were all the devices of Mr Knapp laid bare to Mr Beetham, who had long suspected them, and the hatred between the two men was dominating all else in the Democrats by the end of the year. National . acknowledged its election defeat in 1984 by dumping its long-time leader, Sir Robert Muldoon, too precipitately. The resentments this engendered in Parliament and within the party organisation festered for 15 months until Mr Jim McLay was dumped as Leader in his turn and Mrs Sue Wood was replaced as president. Since then, Mr Jim Bolger as leader and Mr Neville Young as president have tried to turn the ship around. If they have been less than successful, then that is because National’s problems go far deeper than any perceived shortcomings in Mr McLay and Mrs Wood. National has also made mistakes in appointing outsiders-as chief party executive and research director less than nine

months from the scheduled general election. Both will take months to learn their job when National cannot afford the time.

As the chief Opposition party, National has persistently seized on the wrong issues to fight Labour or run with them at the wrong time.

Mr McLay’s intransigence over a non-nuclear policy helped cost him the urban-liberal support he had been elected to grab back from Labour. Mr Win Peter’s attacks on the Maori loans affair were within two weeks of Christmas when Parliament goes into a month’s recess.

So, in spite of exhibiting many of the symptoms of burn-out during the last two months — as it did in 1985, too — Labour survived intact to fight a 1987 General Election.

Thanks to National, which called an early election for July in 1984, Labour must hold an election by September. This means that the workaholics that make up the Labour Cabinet can work just as hard in 1987 as they did in 1985 and 1986 and get the election over with before burnout occurs again.

The agenda for the September election will not be set until MayJune. Labour wants to give its policies as long as possible to work, specially its economic and industrial policies. By May-June the main export season will be over; by then it will be clear whether the economy is recovering (as Labour predicts) or is a shambles (as National predicts). Both parties will want to do better in 1987 than they did in 1986, and both need confirmed economic information.

1986 ends with both the National and Labour parties in disarray. Both have sizeable factions vocally dissatisfied with party policies and leadership; both are deeply in debt and struggling to attract money and grassroots support.

By May-June, one or other should be in a position to attract money and workers, and at that point the result of the September election will be starting to emerge.