Mr Gorbachev’s gestures

Press, 31 July 1986, Page 14

Mr Gorbachev’s gestures

Mikhail Gorbachev was in Vladivostok to inspect the impressive armed might of the Soviet fleet in the Far East; but if the content of his speech is anything to go by, his mind was on other things. He made three important statements. The first was about the likelihood of the Soviet Union signing the protocols of the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty. The second was about closer ties with the South-East Asian and South Pacific countries. The third was about the withdrawal from Afghanistan, before the end of the year, of six Soviet regiments. The general willingness of the Soviet Union to sign the protocols of the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty seems tempered only by a final decision on the content of the protocols. The articles of the treaty were decided at last year’s South Pacific Forum meeting; the wording of the protocols was delayed until all the nuclear Powers could be consulted. A group has toured the nuclear Powers and will report to next week’s meeting of the South Pacific Forum in Fiji, which is then likely to adopt the final wording of the protocols. Ten of the 13 countries in the South Pacific Forum have signed the treaty. The protocols are open to the nuclear Powers to adopt, declaring that they will abide by the provisions of the treaty. China seems prepared to sign almost anything in the protocols; the Soviet Union is only slightly more cautious; France will be prepared to sign nothing; the United States has not made up its mind; and Britain, which seems to have no mind of its own on arms control measures, will await the decision of the United States. The Soviet Union is not giving much away by signing. It has no known intention of stationing any nuclear weapons or conducting tests in the area. The view announced by the Soviet Union is not unexpected. The interesting aspect will be whether the Soviet announcement will encourage or discourage the United States from signing.

The announcement of the withdrawal of six regiments from Afghanistan seems partly designed to create a favourable climate for the drive for closer relations with the whole region. The withdrawal will be insignificant

in the war against Afghanistan guerrillas. It seems unlikely to impress Pakistan, with which the Soviet Union will soon have talks about Afghanistan. The Soviet Union will still have more than 100,000 troops in Afghanistan. However, although it amounts to nothing more than a gesture, it shows a certain fluidity in the Soviet position and a greater sensitivity to international opinion than the Soviet Union has been capable of in the past. Some of Mr Gorbachev’s stamp is there as he is forced to continue an occupation of a hostile country begun by one of his predecessors more than six years ago. The Soviet leader revived again the possibility of a security conference in the Asian and Pacific area. It was an idea he inherited and he begins to sound as if he does not believe in it seriously himself. If he has reached that conclusion, which reflects the attitude of most of the countries of the Asian and Pacific region, again he is showing more insight than most of his predecessors. What need not be doubted is that he wants closer relations with South-East Asia and the Pacific, not necessarily for military or strategic reasons, but for economic ones. Mr Gorbachev has grasped as no Soviet leader before him has grasped so thoroughly, that the Soviet Union needs to develop its technology. The question is how that should be done. Mr Gorbachev understands very well that Soviet manufacturers have been protected and need to, be exposed to Western technology before they can become competitive. He sees chances in developing markets in South-East Asia and the Pacific.

Many Soviet manufactured goods would be regarded with amusement in some of the world’s more sophisticated markets. Besides, the Soviet Union can subsidise its manufacturers in ways which would breach international trading rules. The Western markets will worry more about the subsidies than some Third World markets. Mr Gorbachev is looking for a Window into the West. In Vladivostok he looked over the biggest Soviet fleet as he did so. The countries closest to that huge fleet might want to trade, but will not overlook the presence of the fleet.