Statistics leaked to bankers, analysts

Press, 23 July 1986, Page 35

Statistics leaked to bankers, analysts

PA Wellington The Government Statistician, Mr Steve Kuzmicich, is examining ways of sealing leaks of major economic statistics, which can give unfair commercial advantage before the figures are officially released. The 2.7 per cent rise in the Consumers’ Price Index for the March quarter was among key economic statistics recently to be correctly "forecast” by bankers and analysts well before the Government Statistician’s official release. Mr Kuzmicich said the problem was not so much embargoes being breached on official statistics releases, but leaks of confidential early estimates which the Department of Statistics prepares for a few

Ministers and senior officials. "I am well aware of the situation and it concerns me as well as the Minister,” Mr Kuzmicich said yesterday. “We are thinking of ways of changing the system. It can’t continue. I am aware that early advice of the CPI does give an advantage to those who have it for trading on the foreign-exchange market, the futures market, and elsewhere. “I want to prevent such discrimination. The estimates’ confidentiality is not being observed, and it’s got to be changed to be fair to everybody.” One option he was considering was having just one official release of the CPI, so that everybody received it at the same time. Mr Kuzmicich said the

system where the department prepared unofficial early estimates had operated under both National and the present Government, at their wish. “And I have gone along with it up till now,” he said. He was not prepared to say which, or how many, Ministers and officials, received the unofficial statistics. But it was a “very small number of selected Ministers who, because of their portfolios, ought to have access, and senior officials.” The early estimate of the CPI was given before the department had completed all its price surveys and included a "guestimate” of data yet to come in. Mr Kuzmicich said bal-ance-of-payments statistics were another “sensi-

tive area” receiving his attention. The department planned to soon start monthly, as well as quarterly, balance-of-payments figures. But the leaking of statistics had to be sorted out before that could happen. Asked whether statistics leaks were a new problem, he said: “With financial deregulation, freeing up of the foreign exchange market, and the development of the futures market, the issue has become more relevant. “In the past, when the exchange rate was controlled, there was not the commercial advantage of taking early information.” The Minister of Statistics, Mr Tizard, was unavailable for comment yesterday.