North Korea preparing for war?

Press, 1 July 1986, Page 12

North Korea preparing for war?

From the Seoul correspondent of ‘The Economist/ London

North Korea proposed in June to its South Korean neighbour that the two countries’ military leaders should get together for a tension-reducing summit

This suggestion is not likely to get a very warm welcome. There has recently been more evidence than usual to support South Korea’s habitual claim that the North is getting ready for war.

In the last two years, North Korea has carried out a big redeployment of its army, raising its concentration of military power on the border with South Korea from 45 per cent of its total strength to 65 per cent. The North’s ability to go on to the offensive has been greatly improved.

Many more of its soldiers close to the South are sitting in trucks and tanks; some of their towed artillery has been replaced with more modern, self-propelled guns. More than 80,000 of North Korea’s forward troops have been gathered into the world’s biggest commando force, some of whose members could be brought into South Korea in slow, low-flying aircraft, or in small submarines that would be hard to detect or to beat back.

In all, there are around 750,000 North Korean soldiers, with a reserve force of 5 million, drawn from a total population of just over 20 million. The South

Koreans have 520,000 soldiers (plus 22,000 marines), also with 5 million in reserve; the South’s population is well over twice that of the North. The 41,000 American servicemen in the south guarantee more American troops in the event of an attack.

But North Korea has nearly three times as many tanks as the South. Neither side has the most up-to-date sort of tank, but North Korea has several hundred Russian T62s. These are more than a match for the South’s best, a version of the American M4B. The main American ground force in South Korea is an infantry division with little, armour.

The North’s air force, however, is less impressive. Many of its combat aircraft are very old, though North Korea has at last acquired 23 Russian-built MlG23s. It thus has some effective all-weather fighters, though they hardly measure up to the Fl 6 fighters in the South flown by both the South Korean and the American air forces.

The Russians have recently supplied the North Koreans with new anti-aircraft weapons, and with ground-to-ground missiles that could hit Seoul, South Korea’s capital.

Why has North Korea been arming itself so heavily? South Korea’s booming economy —- its G.D.P. is already four times as big as the North’s — will allow the South to close its military gap

with the North in about five years. During the next few years North Korea may have its last chance for a military solution of the conflict that has divided the country since 1945. Some South Koreans believe that the North will be tempted to strike before the Seoul Olympics in 1988.

American Army men acknowledge that the next few years may be dangerous, though they are slightly less alarmed by the North Korean build-up. They do, however, agree that it is increasingly hard for the South, even with American backing, to offer a credible deterrent.

It used to be thought that the South could halt a North Korean attack if it had enough time to mobilise its reserves. But the movement of so many of North Korea’s mechanised troops close to the border has cut the warning time from days to hours.

The danger is that North Korea could punch through the South Korean lines before the South had time to organise the necessary counter-attack. It could thus take control of a chunk of South Korean territory — including Seoul, only 40 miles from the border — before American reinforcements could arrive.

A surprise attack would by no means produce a sure victory for the North. But the North Koreans have always been an unpredictable lot. Few in Seoul give them tije benefit of the doubt.

Copyright — The Economist.