Asian security pact?

Press, 23 June 1986, Page 20

Asian security pact?

The Soviet Union has revived its suggestion of an Asian security pact. The idea has been around for a number of years and is put forward by the Soviet Union at intervals. In May last year the suggestion was made again, during a visit to Moscow by the Indian Prime Minister, Mr Gandhi. Sometimes the idea has been put forward by the Mongolians and the Soviet Union has later spoken of it with approval. The proposal appears to be linked to the European Co-operation and Security Conference.

Just what has prompted the Soviet Union to revive the idea is not completely clear. The revival came immediately after talks within the Warsaw Pact of major troop reductions in Europe. The West has welcomed those suggestions, but is waiting to see the specific details. Sometimes the Soviet Union has suggested equal cuts in troops in Europe by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation and by the Warsaw Pact. Since the Warsaw Pact conventional forces greatly outnumber the N.A.T.O. forces there, the proposal has had little attraction to N.A.T.O. Fears are held, particularly by the Japanese, that if the number of Soviet troops or missiles is reduced in Europe, they will simply be shifted to the Soviet Far East. The Soviet Union already has substantial forces there and, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, about 162 SS 20 missiles. These missiles have three independently targeted warheads with 150 kilotons of explosive power in each warhead. The range of these weapons is about 4000 kilometres. The Soviet Union has also 380 SS Ils, which have a range of about 9000 kilometres.

Presumably most of these intercontinental ballistic missiles are aimed at the United States. It is technically possible for them to be aimed at targets in Asian countries such as Japan. Besides these landbased missiles, the Soviet Union has a number of submarines with short-range SSN 5s and SSN 6s, the former having a range of about 1400 kilometres, the latter having a range of 3000 kilometres.

When such a weapons system is already directed at targets that are probably in China and Japan, Japan and China have reason enough to worry. If the Soviet Union is arguing that there should be an Asian security pact to cover the possible shifting of weapons from Europe to Asia, that sounds remarkably like a threat. No land-based nuclear missiles are aimed at the Soviet Union from Japan, and probably very few from China. If Asia became part of the nuclear arms negotiations, pressure would certainly mount for nuclear missiles to be based in Asian countries and targeted on the Soviet Union.

Arguments have been advanced in the United States for such a development. It would mean another increase in the whole dreadful arms race. If the Soviet Union wants to demonstrate good will over arms in Asia, the opportunities are abundant without any conference. On the other hand, if the Soviet Union is concerned about the proposals for a Pacific Economic Community, fearing that this will become a military grouping, every opportunity should be taken to disabuse the Soviet Union of that idea.