Trouble in store for Rajiv Gandhi

Press, 17 June 1986, Page 17

Trouble in store for Rajiv Gandhi

At home and abroad; economically and politically, Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi is not having an easy time. RICHARD ERLICH reports from New Delhi.

The Indian Prime Minister, Rajiv Gandhi, is in trouble. His idealistic dreams of sweetening relations with his neighbours, especially Pakistan and Sri Lanka, have soured. As a result, his diplomatic statements towards them are increasingly filled with accusations. Added to this is his muchheralded peace accord with ter-rorist-torn Punjab which now lies in tatters. Suspected Sikh separatists are almost daily murdering innocent Hindus and Government officials, and the once-pros-perous state is becoming a place of fear and hatred.

To compound his problems, Gandhi’s domestic economic policies have angered the already impoverished man-in-the-street. Serious price riots erupted when his recent Budget was being formed, forcing him to

change things at the last minute. The Indian press has ended its optimistic, gleeful honeymoon with the young former airline pilot which began when he assumed office after the October 31, 1984, assassination of his mother, Indira Gandhi.

Once trumpeted as India’s “Mr Clean” because of his uncorrupted past, Gandhi is now tagged by Indian wits as “Boy Blunder” because his inexperience is leading to serious problems throughout this vast nation. Gandhi’s biggest crisis, still unsolved and escalating, is the bloodshed in the Punjab state. Hundreds of people, mostly Hindus, have died this year. In spite of the April 30 police purge of the Golden Temple which ousted Sikhs demanding an independent nation, Punjab is still a killing ground for Sikh

extremists who stage hit-and-run attacks.

“Rajiv, behind his bullet-proof glass and eating breakfast in the shadow of commandos, has only provided security for himself,” one worried Hindu shopkeeper in Punjab said. “Rajiv has a deaf ear to the fears of the people who are being cut down. We Hindus voted for the Sikh’s Akali Government in Punjab on advice from Rajiv that they will solve all this violence, but no one has. The common people want security.” The problem is complicated by Punjab’s lengthy border with Pakistan. Sikh militants reportedly criss-cross the border seeking safety and black market weapons.

Gandhi, however, accuses Pakistan’s United States-backed president, General Zia Ul-Huq, of actively financing and training Sikh separatists. In spite of Zia’s denials, Gandhi strengthened security and the two nations have engaged in several gun battles along the disputed sections of their frontier which also

divides the northern state of Kashmir. In an ominous undercurrent, Western diplomats fear both nations are secretly trying to develop nuclear weapons though New Delhi and Islamabad deny it. •

Meanwhile, Gandhi’s relations with the island nation of Sri Lanka have also turned grim. Gandhi’s Government accused Sri Lanka, off India’s south coast, of “genocide” against its Tamil Hindu minority which is waging a rebel war to divide the island and create an independent homeland.

Closer to home, though, many economists say India’s financial prospects are slowly improving, common people are loudly complaining. . For example, the respected Marketing and Research Group recently conducted a poll of six major cities for the “Illustrated Weekly of India” magazine. They found in New Delhi, Bombay, Calcutta, Madras, Bangalore, and Hyderabad between 50 and 90 per cent of the respondents felt

inflation was “worse” than last year.

Their biggest pain was Gandhi’s hike in petroleum products, while international oil prices were collapsing. Fertilisers and foodgrains were also raised. Less affluent respondents, who earn less than $BO a month, were especially critical, describing Gandhi as having created a cruel “rich man’s budget.” On the plus side, Gandhi is winning praise for appearing to clamp down on corruption. The Income Tax and Excise Department is especially active raiding tax evaders, including the “fat cats.” Of India’s -750 million population, only four million paid income tax in 1985.

In spite of his woes, Gandhi still enjoys widespread personal support, though his ; Congress (I) party candidates have been steadily losing in several states since 1984 and some of his party men are defecting to the opposition. When asked about Gandhi’s “over-all performance” compared to last year, between 30 and 69 per cent of the poll’s

respondents answered “better.” Stinging criticism, however, comes from his popular former Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, who Gandhi booted out of his Cabinet with embarrassing bluntness, for rasons which are still unclear. Mukherjee, who was Indira Gandhi’s closest adviser, has since evaluated Rajiv Gandhi and presented the following: • Strengths: He inherited a strong, vibrant, and healthy economy, and the opposition is non-existent. • Weaknesses: Very little experience, and he has to follow the process of trial and error. • Opportunities: Gandhi is riding on the crest of the technological revolution and is, rightly, giving it the importance it deserves.

• Threats: If he fails, it will be disastrous. It will be seen not only ,as his failure but as the failure of the entire post-inden-dence generation, whose hopes and aspirations he has come to symbolise. Copyright — London Observer Service.