The signs of our tech-age strain

Press, 22 May 1986, Page 12

The signs of our tech-age strain

and Challenger were at the frontier of technological complexity. Both failed. lAN BALL, of the “Daily . Telegraph,” London, argues that the time is ripe to review thq hazards of expecting perfection from machines.

Ttie loss of the space shuttle Challenger was a technological failure,, of historic proportions. Now,; three months later, Chernobyl comes along to take its place next jto Challenger in the annals of grand failure. Are the super-Powers losing their Touch? Does national arrogance’tautomatically carry with it seeds |of over-confidence that sprout |into . these ugly disasters? The Tay- answer on both points would probably be yes; the experts their views but they, too, affirmative. The true. lesson; to be drawn from Challenger and Chernobyl, however, 'is far more important: planet Earth is a riskier blob in the universe today than was the case, say, a year or six months ago. A tiny increase, admittedly, but any increment must be heeded.

That this has happened cannot really be blamed on either Ronald Reagan or Mikhail Gorbachev (although the two men have the prime roles now of putting matters right). We have been drifting towards this situation since the United States and the Soviet Union, among others, perfected the art of smashing the atom for useful energy and building rockets that could smash a potential foe to smithereens.

All this has been done in the crucible of the most intense competition, between two ideological systems, the world has ever seen. And as anyone who has been under real, sustained pressure will attest, those are circumstances in which errors and miscalculations creep in. If Messrs Reagan and Gorbachev resume their summitry this autumn. Challenger and Chernobyl should be? not simply items on the agenda but , almost the theme of the meeting. These two leaders could do mankind no better service than to agree to a pause, an openended suspension, in which the industrialised world could ponder calmly the technological march that led to Challenger and Chernobyl. All it takes is for two men to lead their nations into a breathing spell. A wise soul in Washington put it this way: “Are Communism and Capitalism simultaneously discovering the human limit of technological complexity?” Scientists in both camps have suddenly come to grips with this issue, and this, more than any other era, is a time when politicians do pay heed to what technocrats are saying. Those technocrats, lately, have become a chastened lot, and if their

advice is tendered, honestly,'Their counsel will bethat humaq skills and machines have been pushed to the very edge of their capacities;- ,; ’*?*?!* Mr- Gorbachev, one : .imagines, would jump at the iilea of a> i pause, if only to get' nd of the’ Reagan Strategic Defence Initiative, or “Star Wars. Evfn before. the recent rocket failures, there seemed td; be a growirig number of Americanswho woujd be just as happy io see “Star Wars” . ditched., J 7 ■ One? finds in this camp more young; f technocrats / .than. , one; might-'expect: how,'these 1 ? computer superliterates ftask7 can- ■ human beings write ~ sbme 120 ft. million lines of computer' programming for a defence? shield in, space and not expect to make a single, possibly disastrous, mistake? It is this sort .of I example that is offered byx thbse who argue we are at or beyond our v capacity to operate, accidentfree, all these wondrous systems. It may be that the Americans have more reason than the Russians to welcome a pause in East-West rivalry in things hightech. Their three successive and calamitous failures with big ' rockets, beginning with the shuttle explosion 14 weeks ago, have utterly crippled America’s’ ..ft ability to lift military, commercial and scientific satellites into orbit. National Aeronautics and Space. Administration men in Houston and Cape Canaveral were this month using some most unscientific language ;-s- “jinx”, “sinister forces”, "cosmic curse”,

— in discussing whysi.s button - of public.money has produced nothing more than spectacular ft pyrotechnics on the evening network? .news.; What', a‘ way -w. celebrate. the twenty-fifth anni- ‘ versary,*«offt ft America’s ; .first ? manned’liapft into space! . . U, 'Weft-have grown accustomed lately, .fa; seeing furrowed brows: at N.A.S.A. while, they : try to explain.; matters, 7a big change * from the image of the spokes-., men of the recent past.r :- . -; And there ismuch to explain." . 'America’s three big space fail-’, ures this year seemed to reflect? a ’ system-wide’ malaise.? Three ? quite different booster- rockets ■ wete in'volvedr ’ a' sblidTuel; ■ booster designed . for the shuttle, ah: Air 'Forde Titan, and’ at the beginning qt this month, a Delta,'? the country’s ■ most.- dependable launch vehicle. ’ ?. ft?' Both militaiy.. and ..civilian space ■ programmes ,’.-'were involved. Three different manufacturers produced - .me hardware. Both launching Canaveral and Vandenburg, were involved in the record of failure. ft The Delta and Titan programmes ft date back to the sixties. ? Only a fool would suggest that a new and improved “O” ring for its rockets is all ’ America needs to appease the technological gods. Perhaps the most significant shift this spring in the American mood — certainly it is The most discernible — has been 'a readiness to accept that when machines grow enormously com; .t plex, it is rash to expect perfection. .Each is an accident;waiting ft ’ ".ft'/-

- to happen. Nd,wonder’ Confess is asking pointed questions about ! : N.A.S.A.’S .management. Skills, its quality.- controi;and|itsmaintenance; procedures. ' 1 : . No . wonder,.. when yqrdinary Americans were askedirtn-the ' most recent Gallup they would be prepared?;toTive ’ within five , miles olM>puciear .'power plant, 70 f. per cent - answered Vno.” When theisame question was'put 10- years ago, only 45 per cent were opposed to the idea. ■ j - No wonder no new orders for nuclear pdwei;.planisihaye}been . .placed, in the United States since '?i978. ; < - ’’ T I 'No |so per cent of Americans now they are 1 opposed to nuclear power. In less r than a year this ration-jumped from 44 per cent. : Both giants are now- admitting publicly that ’ the machines created by their most brilliant scientists are not only flawed'but also occasionally can run’amok. That, in itself? psychologically pdliticaliy/n tiie sta § e for an agreed pause? tor'the sort of ‘ stocktaking That; f every family, every:, company* ahd institution, every human; erideayour: must undertake periodically, ft Is; not ; beyond the? boundaries\of hope that the’ stage, would be set also for; grander- . accomplisjiments, for ;The . more; tranquil, ordinary fdlk;hnltotaTsides ofthe globar:divide : Wish ; nnttheir heart of hearts-, y- / If? so, ..Challenger, ahd Cherno- ! byl may : go down- ini history as heaven-sent cautions, inot just to the boffins butto uSIaU. -;