No clear-cut result in France

Press, 18 March 1986, Page 20

No clear-cut result in France

Mr Jacques Chirac, leader of the Gaullist Rassemblement pour la Republique, wasted no time in claiming victory in the French Parliamentary elections. Even if the final figures show that his confidence is well placed, it is by no means certain that Mr Chirac will be the person to whom President Mitterrand will turn for a new Prime Minister. The predicted swing to the Centre and to the Right has occurred, but the swing has not been so great that alliance between the R.P.R. and the Union pour la Democratic Francaise will look comfortable. Mr Laurent Fabius, the Prime Minister until the election, will resign according to French political tradition. But the Socialists, whom he leads, still form the biggest single party in the National Assembly and there were suggestions beforehand that Mr Fabius would still be in a strong position if the Socialists won 30 per cent of the vote. The latest figures show that the Socialists exceeded that figure. It is unlikely that Mr Fabius is finished with politics, or that politics have finished with Mr Fabius. The main stumbling block to Mr Chirac’s becoming Prime Minister is that the alliance is divided over the question of sharing power with President Mitterrand, whose presidency has still two years to run. Mr Raymond Barre has a strong personal following among both the alliance partners and the public, but he is unwilling to be part of a group which would be the Government while President Mitterrand remains, in office. The division within the alliance may mean that President Mitterrand will choose Mr Jacques Chaban-Delmas of the R.P.R., or Mrs Simone Veil, of the U.D.F., to form a conservative Government with Socialists in some of the portfolios. He might be able to encourage some U.D.F. politicians to join an Administration headed by a Socialist. If the Socialists managed to retain most of the power, this would avoid the condition known as “cohabitation” under which France could have a socialist President and a conservative Ministry. There are some curious aspects to the French Constitution that would make cohabitation uneasy. The

Constitution of the Fifth Republic was devised by General de Gaulle, whose view of himself and of France did not admit of the possibility that there might be a President of a political persuasion different from that of the Government. The Constitution was drawn up in 1958 and, so far, the President and the Government have always been on the same political side. Under cohabitation it will be difficult to know who holds the power. Article 20 of the Constitution says: “The Government determines and conducts the nation’s policies.” However, the President is chairman at Cabinet meetings and French Presidents have jealously retained the principal power in their own hands. Another confusion lies in, of all things, France’s nuclear strike force. A 1964 decree says that it is the President, as Chief of the Armed Forces, who has the authority to press the nuclear button. For its part, the Constitution says that the Prime Minister is in charge of national defence and that Parliament has to authorise any declaration of war.

The outcome of the election seems likely to be a prolonged stalemate while France works out who is in charge. Under such circumstances the formulation of clear-cut policies will be lacking. There may even be rivalry to demonstrate the most extreme policies. This bodes ill for New Zealand’s relations with France over the jailed French agents. It also bodes ill for achieving a calm settlement of the problems of New Caledonia.

Because of a boycott called by the proindependence Kanak Socialist National Liberation Front (F.L.N.K.S.), only half the electorate turned up to vote in New Caledonia. The extreme Right-wing National Front and the R.P.R. shared a platform in New Caledonia and the two candidates on that platform won. The swing to the Right in France as a whole meant that more than 30 members of the National Front were elected. A country in which 10 per cent of the voters choose an extreme Right-wing group not only has problems, but may cause problems for others.