The Gorbachev proposals

Press, 28 January 1986, Page 16

The Gorbachev proposals

One of the most interesting developments over arms limitations that has occurred in a long time is that President Reagan appears to be taking seriously the proposals by the Soviet General Secretary, Mr Mikhail Gorbachev, for the elimination of nuclear arms by the year 2000. At least, he is not dismissing them instantly. Soviet proposals on arms limitations made in public have long been treated by the United States with some caution and are usually regarded as propaganda.

Mr Reagan has himself made suggestions about the gradual elimination of all nuclear arms. All of a sudden, the Soviet Union seems to be embracing the same viewpoint. It would be hard for Mr Reagan to be consistent and to dismiss the Gorbachev proposals out of hand. President Reagan must also know that the Soviet proposals, made through worldwide television presentations and much other publicity, cannot be too promptly or sweepingly discounted. Too many people would not stand for such a reaction to an arms-reduction offer — propaganda or not.

One of the more important advances made in the Gorbachev proposals is that they accept the principle of on-site inspection. The United States has long argued that on-site inspections are necessary for verification; and the Soviet Union has resisted these. A further hopeful move is that Mr Gorbachev appears to have accepted the principle of equity between the United States and the Soviet Union, and not to be including the British and French missiles. The United States has long wanted this.

A third hopeful aspect is that when the Soviet Union was asked what it meant by

“removing” the missiles from Europe the reply was that it meant to “destroy” the missiles. There had been suspicions, not simply among the Americans but also among the Japanese and the Chinese, that the removal of missiles from Europe might mean an increase in the missiles in Asia.

Many people in the Reagan Administration, and some of the groups which have given their support to President Reagan, believe that there should be no arms agreements between the Soviet Union and the United States, that the Soviet Union cannot be trusted, and that it has already broken the provisions of other agreements. This is not the official position of the American Government.

When President Reagan came to power for a second term there were indications that he was getting serious about arms limitations, but it was not clear how serious. In his strategic defence initiative, at least part of his thinking seemed to be that it would remove the threat of nuclear war. How sound such thinking is on scientific grounds is hard to say. Few scientists seem ready to consider it feasible.

Nevertheless, the President has remained devoted to the idea. The Soviet Union has been adamantly opposed to it. Undoubtedly, there has been some movement in nuclear arms negotiations; the telling point will be whether the movement is enough to take the world on a path of fewer rather than more nuclear weapons. The cautious soundings of Soviet policy by the Reagan Administration are a hopeful hint that something may yet come of the Gorbachev offer.