Hidden cards Marcos may play

Press, 18 December 1985, Page 20

Hidden cards Marcos may play

In the first of two articles previewing the planned elections in the Philippines, the Manilla correspondent of “The Economist” looks at the challenge to President Marcos and some possible responses. Tomorrow, the “Guardian’s” Nicholas Cumming-Bruce profiles the focus of the challenge, ' Corazon Aquino.

Ferdinand Marcos, who has ruled the Philippines as President for 20 years, may be thoroughly dislikeable but he is a master of tactical play. His skills have rarely been more in evidence than they have been this month.

He got the acquittal he wanted from the Court trying his armed services Chief of Staff and others for arranging the murder of the opposition leader Benigno Aquino in 1983.

He began fending off American pressure for reform of the armed services by busily shuffling the officer corps and talking reform. And he laid the groundwork for a February election that he has a good chance of winning if the opposition cannot agree on a single candidate, and a good chance of avoiding altogether on a constitutional technicality if it looks as if he might lose. Not a bad round of play for an unhealthy 67-year-old whose country has been in political and financial crisis since the murder of his main opponent two years ago. The result of the trial, which came on December 2, surprised nobody. A special Court acquitted General Fabian Ver, the armed services Chief of Staff, and 25 other men of complicity in Aquino’s murder. The Court rejected the findings of an independent commission which concluded last year that Aquino was killed by a soldier who was supposed to be guarding him. Within hours General Ver was back in his old job as Chief of Staff.

In reinstating him, President Marcos ignored the disapproval of the United States. The Philippine President presumably hopes that the Americans will be mollified by a promised “top-to-bottom” reshuffle of the armed services in which General Ver, his military honour now satisfied, is expected to take early retirement. On Tuesday, December 3, Aquino’s widow Corazon (known as Cory) ended months of speculation by saying she was willing to be the opposition’s presidential candidate. She now has the opposition’s other possible candidate, Mr Salvador Laurel, as her vice-presidential running-mate. She is a personable and by every sign courageous woman of 52. For the last two years she has stumped the country blaming Mr Marcos for having her husband killed and

demanding the President’s resignation. She has no training in politics, although her father and grandfather were both noted politicians. Her sense of purpose has made up for her lack of experience. Apparently doubting her own popularity, she had said she would not be a presidential candidate unless a nullion Filipinos asked her to be. Early this month she was presented with the signatures of 1.2 million people who want her to run. Mrs Aquino has said that she would prefer to run without a platform in order to get the opposition groups of the Deft and the Right to unite for “the single, most important purpose of getting rid of Mr Marcos.” Mr Marcos has returned the compliment by asking, “What nincompoop is she going to get to run her Government for her?” Few of her advisers, an idealistic group, have had much administrative experience themselves; but she has had pointers from her brother, Mr Jose Cojuangco, a former congressman, and from Mr Jovito Salonga, a distinguished former senator. She has also come under the influence of two nationalistic former senators, Mr Lorenzo Tanada and Mr Jose Diokno.

Family links are important in Philippine politics. Mrs Aquino is a cousin of Eduardo Cojuangco, who runs the country’s corrupt coconut monopoly and is a close friend of Mr Marcos.

Mrs Aquino is expected to make some concessions to the radical youth and labour groups which are becoming politically important. A new Left-of-Centre party, Laban, launched last month to promote her candidacy, says it will seek the renegotiation of the mili-tary-bases agreement with the United States, although Mrs Aquino favours retaining the bases. Laban wants the Philippines to reschedule its external debts (again), and favours a programme of land reform.

Mr Laurel, a former senator, and Mrs Aquino’s running-mate, is very much a professional. The son of a former President, who headed a puppet Government during the Japanese occupation of the Philippines, Mr Laurel leads the United Nationalist Democratic Organisation.

His party has 41 seats in the National Assembly, which makes it the largest opposition group.

Will there be an election? Some of the country’s legal experts have claimed in learned newspaper articles that an election would be unconstitutional and so should not be held. The next presidential election was not strictly due until 1987. The constitution provides for. an unscheduled election only in the' event of the President’s death, 1 incapacity, impeachment or resignation. Mr Marcos has refused to resign. ' < Instead, he has submitted to the National Assembly an ambiguous promise to resign after the elections are oven “I hereby irrevoc-. ably vacate the position of presi-. dent,” he wrote, "effective only when the election is held and after, the winner is proclaimed and qualified as president by taking the oath of office.” \ One Philippine politician has called this declaration “worse than a postdated cheque that can be stopped before it’s cashed.” Several lawyers and members of Parliament have asked the Philip? Bine Supreme Court to ' rule that le new laws under which the election is to be held are indeed unconstitutional. Mr Marcos has confidently predicted that the Court, which showed its pliancy in the Aquino murder case, will reject this plea. ; If popular support began building up for Mrs Aquino, however, it might be convenient for the President if the Court were to find that the election was unconstitutional after all. !

Those familiar with the President’s ways believe that, instead of an election with opposing candidates, Mr Marcos would prefer a, referendum in which voters could say only yes or no to his staying on; as President. Even if denied such a plebiscite, Mr Marcos is making sure that the arrangements for an election are rigged in his favour. The citizens’ poll-watching group, the National' Movement for Free Elections, which fielded 30,000 volunteers during national elections last year and was credited with ensuring reasonably fair results, has been denied permission to watch the voting this time. . ■■■ ;;

The Government says the group is biased. Local village officials; who are on the ■ Government’s payroll, have been'; appointed as poll-watchers instead. Is the trace of a grin beginning to show on Mr Marcos’s poker face?— Copyright “The Economist” ;