Kidnappings in Lebanon

Press, 5 October 1985, Page 18

Kidnappings in Lebanon

The kidnapping of four Soviet diplomats and the killing of one of them has added another chapter to the horrors of Lebanon. The point of taking the Soviet diplomats hostage was to try to persuade the Soviet Union to put pressure on Syria to stop support for the attack on a Sunni Muslim group in Tripoli. The group responsible for the kidnapping is not well known, so it is difficult to track down the kidnappers, and hard to negotiate with the kidnappers directly or to seek the release of the remaining diplomats through another Lebanese group. To get its people released alive, the Soviet Union will doubtless have to go through some of the agonies and deal with some of the difficulties that the United States met when American airline passengers were held hostage earlier this year. A number of Americans were kidnapped by the same group last year and the killing of one has just been announced. The Soviet Union has some leverage over Syria, but probably not enough to get the Syrians to stop an action which they see as being in their national interest. The Soviet Union is deeply involved in Lebanon. It is the main supporter of Syria and Syria’s main arms supplier. It is true that by threatening to cut off arms supplies to Syria the Soviet Union would alarm Syria. However, cutting off arms supplies would be a long-term process, and what the kidnappers want is the cessation of attacks on Tripoli. It seems doubtful whether pressure would persuade Syria to stop an action already well advanced. Although it backs Syria,

the Soviet Union has connections of its own with various groups in Lebanon and is anxious to demonstrate to Syria from time to time that it can act independently. An accord appears to have been reached over Tripoli, but it is not known whether this will satisfy the kidnappers. The killing of the American diplomat, Mr William Buckley, after holding him for so long, is an indication of the type of people with whom both the Soviet Union and the Americans have to deal.

How the Soviet Union will respond to the kidnapping and death remains to be seen. So far, it has issued a strong statement and blamed the problems of Lebanon on Israel. It has also emphasised its friendship with Arab people. This may not ring true with a number of Arabs. After all, the Soviet Union has always said that it was a supporter of the Palestine Liberation Organisation; but the Syrians, backed by the Soviet Union, have attacked sections of the P.L.O. The Syrians had been something of an embarrassment to the Soviet Union in Lebanon before the kidnappings. Even if the Soviet Union has only a limited influence over the Syrians, it is possible that the Syrians will themselves act, not under pressure from the Soviet Union, but to help the Soviet Union to get back the remaining hostages. If Syria does not do something of its own accord, the chances seem strong that the Soviet Union will distance itself more from Syria to make sure that similar incidents do not happen again.