Saving the Philippines

Press, 24 July 1985, Page 16

Saving the Philippines

In appealing to the Opposition to help the Government save the Philippine republic, President Marcos at least is showing that he believes a great deal to be at stake in the country. The appeal is likely to be seen in the Philippines — and abroad — not so much as a serious acknowledgement by President Marcos that he has seen the light about political and economic reforms but as one of his last desperate bids to stay in power. In the past President Marcos has used martial law and rigged elections to retain power. Asking for help from the Opposition in the interests of national unity is hardly the most original ploy adopted by an authoritarian ruler, but President Marcos had exhausted many of the other possibilities. President Marcos is under siege on several fronts. The New People’s Army, the military arm of the Communist Party of the Philippines, appears to be gathering strength by the day and fighting not only guerrilla actions which are the mainstay of an insurgency movement, but also set battles with the Armed. Forces of the Philippines. A struggle is also occurring politically. One element of the political struggle is about the succession to President Marcos, whose health has been failing. Another is for unity among the parties which oppose President Marcos. The political struggle, which had already begun, was intensified by the murder in 1983 of the only strong political rival to President Marcos, Benigno Aquino, who was shot as he was leaving an aircraft which brought him back from exile. Aquino’s murder provided a point of focus for the Opposition. Economically, President Marcos is under siege because of the country’s huge foreign debts and recent austerity measures taken to comply with

the International Monetary Fund’s conditions for loans. Most recently, President Marcos has come under severe criticism over accusations that he has been buying property and companies in the United States. Accusations of widespread corruption and the sending of money abroad which now characterise the Marcos Government characterised the Iranian Government in the last days of the Shah. In Iran it was the Shi’ite sect of Islam which brought about the downfall of the Shah. The cause that brought unity was the Shah’s overthrow. In the Philippines the aim of overthrowing President Marcos is helping to unify disparate groups. President Marcos has promised to hold “free and honest elections.” He is almost certainly too late for such offers to be taken seriously. The United States has been watching the crisis in the Philippines with growing alarm. It has become convinced that some drastic political and economic reforms are necessary. President Marcos has shown himself no more disposed to take any notice of the Americans than he has to take notice of the demands for reform within the Philippines. From a strategic viewpoint, the United States does not want to lose the use of the Subic Bay naval base or the Clark air force base. The insurgency in the Philippines appears to be homegrown, with no particular fostering from foreign countries. The chances are strong that if President Marcos is overthrown by military or other violent means, the United States will no longer be welcome in the Philippines. That is why the United States has been pressing for reform and an orderly succession to power after President Marcos.