Population projection
By
OLIVER RIDDELL
in Wellington
The population of the North Island is expected to increase by about 650,000 between 1981-2000, but that of the South Island only by about 20,000.
These population predictions are contained in a report by the Statistics Department just published. They cover all local body areas, cities, boroughs, dis- ' tricts, town districts, and counties, based on figures from the 1981 census. Based on “medium” assumption projections, the population of the South Island should increase from 851,000 in 1981 to 871,000 in 2000, the report found. This means tbat the population of the South Island as a percentage of the national population will fall from 26.9 per cent in 1981 to 22.7 per >?ent in 2000.
The population of the North Island will rise from 2,319,000 to 2,970,000, and the share of the national population will rise from 73.1 per cent to 77.3 per cent. If population trends rise according to these projections, three areas in the South Island — Westland, Aorangi, and coastal North Otago — will actually lose population.
Those areas likely to gain fastest in population are Northland, with 44.7 per cent increase; Bay of Plenty, 40.7 per cent; and Auckland, 36.9 per cent. Figures for the regions in the northern half of the South Island are.—
Marlborough.— 38,000 in 1981, 38,000 in 1986, 38,000 in 1991, 39,000 in 1996, 38,000 in 2001, and 38,000 by 2006. Nelson Bays.— 66,000 in 1981, 69,000 in 1986, 72,000 in 1991, 73,000 in 1996, 74,000 in 2001, and 74,000 by 2006.
West Coast.— 34,000 in 1981, 34,000 in 1986, 34,000 in 1991, 34,000 in 1996, 34,000 in 2001, and 33,000 by 2006. Canterbury.— 337,000 in 1981, 344,000 in 1986, 351,000 in 1991, 357,000 in 1996, 360,000 in 2001, and 360,000 by 2006. Aorangi.— 85,000 in 1981, 82,000 in 1986, 82,000 in 1991, 82,000 in 1996, 81,000 in 2001, and 79,000 by 2006. By the year 2000, 41 per cent of the population of the South Island will live in Canterbury, compared with 39 per cent in 1981.
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Bibliographic details
Press, 8 May 1985, Page 3
Word Count
340Population projection Press, 8 May 1985, Page 3
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