How many nuclear weapons in Europe?

Press, 8 November 1984, Page 20

How many nuclear weapons in Europe?

From “The Economist,” London

The argument about the number of nuclear weapons in Europe goes on. According to the American Secretary of Defence, Mr Caspar Weinberger, the Russians are increasing the arsenal of SS-20 missiles aimed at western Europe. These are the accurate and movable weapons which the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation began to counter late last year by deploying its own Pershing-2 and cruise missiles in Europe. In January, the Americans claimed that the Russians had put in place a total of 378 SS-20s. On October 11, at a meeting of N.A.T.O.’s nuclear planning group in Italy, Mr Weinberger said that they had now deployed more than this, although he would not say how many more. His remarks brought an indignant reaction, not only from Russia, but from the Netherlands Defence Minister, Mr Jacob de Ruiter who has been against taking his country’s share of N.A.T.O.’s cruise missiles. The Russians, growling from

afar, insisted that they have no more SS-20s aimed at western Europe than they did last December. Mr de Ruiter, grumbling to journalists after the N.A.T.O. meeting, complained that Mr Weinberger had produced no evidence for his more-than-378 claim. The importance of the figure 378 is no mystery: a divided Dutch Government has agreed to begin deploying cruise missiles in 1986 only if the Russians have, by then, more than 378 SS-20s. (This figure includes roughly 126 missiles based east of the Urals, out of immediate range of western Europe.) To back up his claim, Mr Weinberger has satellite pictures showing 14 new SS-20 bases. Normally such bases handle nine SS-20 launchers each. This suggests that the Russians may be ready to deploy 126 more SS-20s. The Americans have always based their SS-20 figures more on the number of bases, and on intercepts of Russian communications, than on counting actual missiles. The Russians seem to be saying

that the Americans are counting the SS-20s before they are put into place. They might also claim that, even if there are now a few more SS-20s than there were at the end of 1983, the new ones are for deployment in the Far East. Then what are the new bases, within reach of Europe, for?

Neither N.A.T.O. nor Russia’s east European allies have overlooked another Russian missile. In September, the Russians began deploying nearly 100 SS-22s at bases in East Germany and Czechoslovakia. These missiles, with a range of 625 miles, can hit most of the targets in western Europe reachable by SS-20s fired from the Soviet Union. Since the Russians now have many more warheads trained on western Europe than there are targets for them, the SS-22s have little military point. The Russians may be hoping to use them at bargaining counters in future arms-control talks, in order not to have to cut their SS-20s. Copyright, “The Economist.”