THE PRESS TUESDAY, JULY 24, 1984. Israelis at the polls

Press, 24 July 1984, Page 20

THE PRESS TUESDAY, JULY 24, 1984. Israelis at the polls

Israelis are voting in an election in which the issue would appear to be clear-cut, but is not so. Governments tend to survive or fall on their economic performance, and with inflation running at 400 per cent a year in Israel, the Opposition Labour Party might reasonably have expected to be in a position in which it scarcely needed to campaign to beat the governing party, the Likud. Yet all is not as it might seem because the wage indexation system in Israel has kept at least the better-off slightly ahead over the last few years. The poorer may have been getting poorer, but others have learned to live with inflation. They do not believe it can last for ever — the 50 per cent increase in the sale of cars last month suggests that they believe stern economic measures will be taken after the election — but inflation may not determine the outcome of the election. Both the Likud and the Labour Party have ideas about cutting the Budget deficit. The areas for cutting reveal more than a little about the intentions of the two parties. The Likud has been promising to cut defence costs and social welfare benefits for the better off. Since defence takes about 30 per cent of Israel’s Budget it might seem a good place to begin pruning, but because of the position Israel both puts itself in and finds itself in, heavy pruning will not be likely. Israel has frequently pictured itself as a small State surrounded by hostile Arab countries whose intention is to dismantle Israel and who can only be deterred by strong defences. To Arab countries Israel is seen as a militarily powerful State committed to expansion. Whether the expansion is for security reasons or for reasons associated with the estimated size of Israel in the Old Testament does not alter the appraisal. The Labour Party plans to reduce the $250 million to $3OO million subsidy for settlers on the West Bank. The Likud Government

encouraged these settlements and scarcely bothered to hide the purpose, which was to bring about a heavy Israeli presence on the West Bank to prevent any development of a Palestinian State there. Arguments for the inclusion of the West Bank in the present borders of Israel have been based on Biblical grounds, but the large Arab population on the West Bank would alter the demographic structure of Israel profoundly. For a while the settlements were justified on defensive grounds. The Labour Party has not undertaken to do away with the West Bank settlements, but to stop their establishment in areas most heavily populated by Arabs. It would also open talks on the West Bank with King Hussein of Jordan and with the United States. Palestinians, as long as they are not part of the Palestine Liberation Organisation, would be permitted to take part in the talks. The Labour Party is also promising to bring home many of the troops in southern Lebanon and to stop concessions to religious groups such as the ban on Sabbath flights by El Al, the Israeli airline. Labour has talked about altering the wage indexation system and putting a ceiling on public service jobs. Israel is in a bind about its economy. If the Likud wins, the present high military profile is almost certain to be continued and the economy will continue to be in the bizarre shape it is in. If Labour wins, much will depend on the size of the victory. If the win is not decisive, then Labour will need other support to govern. It wants to avoid depending on any of the religious parties, but if it does have to depend on any of them, the military aspect of Israel’s foreign policy is likely to continue. Only if Labour gains enough seats to be independent will there be any chance to reform foreign policy and, with it, the economy.