Battle royal coming to a head in Kapiti

Press, 13 July 1984, Page 21

Battle royal coming to a head in Kapiti

Three electorates north-west of Wellington are the focus of desperate last-minute campaigns — Kapiti, Horowhenua, and Rangitikei.

Kapiti has fluctuated since it was formed in 1972. It comprises Paraparaumu, Paekakariki, Plimmerton, Paremata, Whitby, and the northern end of Porirua.

Labour won it in 1972, lost it to National in 1975, nearly won in 1978 when special votes gave National a final majority of 27, and regained it in 1981. Boundary changes give Labour a paper majority of about 600. Two women are fighting it out this time for National and Labour, with Social Credit support falling off and the New Zealand Party starting too late. Mrs Margaret Shields (Labour) has had a busy and productive time since 1981, and National had to find a high-profile candidate to stand against her. This is Mrs June Oakley, a former Mayor of Kapiti Borough; but her choice has not been welcomed by National voters. She was heavily defeated as sitting Mayor in Kapiti last year, and carries a residue of local illwill over issues such as sewerage, water reticulation, and rates. Her choice as National candidate has made Kapiti easier for Labour to retain.

Kapiti has lost the National stronghold of Waikanae to Horowhenua, which in theory ought to make Horowhenua safer for National’s Mr Geoff Thompson. But it has not worked out that way and the electorate is extremely volatile. Waikanae has switched its allegiance to the New Zealand Party. It is a town for retired professional people and senior public servants

from Wellington, and those who are not overseas on their winter holidays (and many are) are disenchanted with the Government.

That leaves a fight between National and Labour for the biggest population centre in the area — Levin. The towns of Foxton and Otaki are safe for Labour, and the pastoral rural area is safe for National, although the growing importance of horticulture gives the New Zealand Party candidate, Mr Graeme Wiggins, a further opening. Levin is a town of small industries, with high unemployment. It stayed National in 1981 because of the long-running Rixon industrial dispute there, which was seen as a device by the Federation of Labour to hurt Mr Thompson, and so backfired.

This time, Labour has a very good candidate in Ms Annette King and a far better organisation than in 1981. Mr Thompson attracts a lot of personal regard in his electorate, but this time is fighting a desperate rear-guard action to hold on to it.

To the north, Rangitikei is also a two-way contest — between Mr Dennis Marshall (National) and Mr Bruce Beetham (Social Credit). Mr Beetham has two advantages in Rangitkei, even though boundary changes cost him his base of support at Marton. He is the sitting

member of Parliament and has been so industrious and successful at being a local M.P. that he is widely known and liked. Also, he is seen as Bruce Beetham rather than the Leader of the Social Credit party.

At a time when Social Credit support is falling away, it is vital for him that he attract votes to his person rather than his party. He can do that.

On the other hand, Mr Marshall is buoyed by the nationwide collapse of Social Credit. He would win comfortably were not Mr Beetham a special sort of opponent, were it not for Mr Marshall’s own background as a landowner of inherited wealth and status, and were it not for Labour’s intention to keep as low a profile as possible. National and Social Credit seem about equal in terms of rural voter support, with Mr Beetham ahead in Taihape and Bulls. But the main centre of population is Feilding which would be a straight contest between National and Labour were Labour’s candidate, the Rev. Alan Walpole, not such a liberal for this conservative town.

Rangitikei could go either way. Having a short campaign has reduced Mr Marshall’s time to get known and to motivate people to get out and vote for him. That could be the deciding factor.