Marginals key to Election

Press, 13 July 1984, Page 20

Marginals key to Election

By

KARREN BEANLAND,

political reporter

The outcome of the 1984 General Election will hinge largely on the results in the 26 marginal seats.

Marginal electorates are defined as those where the two-party swing needed for the seat to change hands is five percentage points or less. Based on the redistribution of the votes cast in the 1981 election into the new boundaries set last year by the Representation Commission, 14 of the marginal seats are now held by National, 10 are held by Labour, and two are held by Social Credit. In order from the most to the least marginal seats, the marginals which Labour could gain are: — Eden - Waitaki — Horowhenua — Fendalton — Hamilton West — Ohariu — Hamilton East — New Plymouth — Whangarei — Invercargill Marginals which National could gain with a swing of five percentage points or less are: — East Coast Bays — West Auckland — Rangitikei — Miramar — Kapiti — Gisborne — Wellington Central — Tongariro — Timaru — Papatoetoe — Western Hutt Two of those seats, East Coast Bays and Rangitikei, are held by the Social Credit Party. Other marginals are the Bay of Islands, Pakuranga, Waitotara, Kaipara and Nelson. In the first four of these five, Social Credit lies in second place behind National. In Nelson, the Independent candidate, Mr Mel Courtney, needs a swing of 2.3 per cent to unseat the Labour member.

Swings Labour needs an overall two-party swing of 2.5 per cent to win enough of the marginal seats to have a workable majority in the next Parliament. If the over-all swing to Labour is less than 2.5 per cent, a “hung” Parliament could be the result. If National can gain a two-party swing of 1.2 per cent, it has a good chance of being returned with a workable majority. This depends on whether National can win the Social Credit seat of East Coast Bays, however. If Social Credit manages to hold the seat, National has to secure a 1.8 per cent swing and take Miramar in order to have an effective Parliamentary majority. Social Credit also poses problems for Labour’s hopes of forming a Government. If National manages to win back either East Coast Bays or Rangitikei, Labour needs a swing of at least 4 per cent to have a comfortable working majority in Parliament. The key marginals to watch out for on election night are Horowhenua and West Auckland. As the Christchurch political scientist, Mr Alan Mcßobie, has illustrated in his electoral pendulum, these seats may be the indicators of the next New Zealand Government. Labour needs a 2.5 per cent swing to win Horowhenua. If the swing is uniform, it should also take Eden and Waitaki, which would give it a workable Parliamentary majority. National’s key seat is West Auckland. It needs a swing of 1.2 per cent to win the seat and in that

case it may also take East Coast Bays. If Social Credit manages to hold East Coast Bays, National’s key seat becomes Miramar, where it needs a 1.8 per cent swing to win. An important point to watch for is whether the two-party swing is reasonably uniform and whether it is sustained throughout election night. Early calculations of the two-party swing often favour Labour, since the results from the urban electorates, where Labour’s strength lies, come in first.

Wild cards The picture at this year’s General Election will undoubtedly be complicated by the wild cards, Social Credit and the New Zealand Party. The polls have indicated a collapse in the Social Credit vote and these newly floating votes could have a big impact in some electorates. Likewise, the New Zealand Party is an unknown quantity in a host of electorates around the country. An early indication of which way the election will go may be gained from the highly marginal seat of Eden, which is reputed to be a barometer for the rest of the country. The polling booth at the Maungawhau School has only once, in 1946, failed to reflect the National voting trends. An interesting point about modern New Zealand elections is that they are won by the party which is able to woo the secondary city electorates, such as New Plymouth, Whangarei and Invercargill, and the mixed electorates, such as

Wairarapa, Marlborough and Waitaki.

Seats in the big cities or in the rural areas tend to be fortress seats either for Labour or National. Springbok tour In the 1981 General Election Labour needed a mere 1 per cent uniform nationwide swing to win. In the event, National achieved an over-all swing of 0.3 per cent in its favour, in spite of the fact that Labour managed to attract marginally more votes than National overall. Alan Mcßobie and other political scientists believe that a significant, and perhaps even crucial, factor in National’s victory was the polarisation of public opinion over the Springbok tour which took place between July and September, 1981.

Survey research suggests that a residue of pro-tour attitudes remained in a number of the National-held marginal seats, mainly the secondary city and mixed seats. It is generally believed that these electorates represent a sort of “middle” New Zealand. They are thought to contain the full range of views and attitudes of New Zealand in a microcosm. Of the 26 electorates which are classified as marginal, 11 are in the main population areas, eight are secondary cities, three are mixed electorates and four are rural seats.

There are only 14 secondary city electorates in New Zealand, and eight of them, or 57 per cent, are marginal. There are seven mixed electorates, nearly 43 per cent of which are marginal. By contrast, only 25 per cent of the 43 urban electorates, and nearly 15 per cent of the 27 rural electorates are classified as marginal. South Island By this analysis, the South Island will have less say in who becomes the next Government than the North Island. Only five of the 26 marginal electorates in this election are in the south Island — Waitaki, Fendalton, Invercargill, Timaru and Nelson. Nevertheless, Waitaki is among the most marginal seats for National, second only to Eden. Labour needs a fractional 0.9 per cent swing to take Eden and 1 per cent to win Waitaki. Fendalton comes fourth on the list of vulnerable National seats, at risk to a swing of 3.8 per cent. Invercargill will fall with a 4.7 per cent swing to Labour. Labour is in a stronger position in the South Island. Only two of its seats — Timaru and Nelson — are in the danger zone. But even then, the risk is not very great. Timaru has fallen into the marginal category because of boundary changes made last year, which put a big rural block into the seat. National has been gaining ground in the seat, but it still needs a 4.1 per cent swing to take it.

Labour's hold on Nelson is being challenged by the former Labour member for the seat, now an Independent, Mr Mel Courtney. After the last election, he needs only a 2.3 per cent swing to take the seat.

In Dunedin West, another former Labour member of Parliament may give the party’s new candidate a close run. Mr Brian Macdonell decided to run as an Independent after he failed to win his party’s endorsement as the new Dunedin West Candidate. He had been the Labour member for Dunedin Central for nearly 20 years. Several other Nationalheld South Island seats will be interesting to watch on election night. Marlborough and Awarua lie just outside the marginal category, requiring a 5.1 per cent and 5.2 per cent swing to change allegiance respectively.

If the results of the recent “New Zealand Her-ald”-National Research Bureau poll, which put Labour ahead of National by 12 percentage points, are carried through on election day, these seats and a host of others will be in danger. Rangiora is regarded as a fairly safe National seat, but the decision by its member, Mr Derek Quigley, not to seek re-election is a blow to the party. He had a strong personal following in the electorate, particularly because of his ability to stand up to the Prime Minister, Sir Robert Muldoon. Labour needs a 5.3 per cent swing to take the seat.