World population is ‘growing too fast’

Press, 23 June 1984, Page 30

World population is ‘growing too fast’

NZPA-Reuter Washington World population is still growing too fast and threatens misery for many countries, in spite of a slowdown in growth in the 19705, says former World Bank president, Mr Robert McNamara. Writing in the United States quarterly, “Foreign Affairs,” he said that unless action was taken to reduce further the rate of growth, the present world population of 4.7 billion would rise to more than 11 billion by the end of the next century. “Certain regions and countries will grow far beyond the limits consistent with political stability and acceptable social and economic conditions,” he said. His article will be distributed at the World Population Conference in Mexico City in August. Mr McNamara, a former United States Defence Secretary, predicted that some nations would adopt enforced birth control measures such as mass sterilisation and families would increasingly resort to abortion.

Female infanticide would become more common as parents sought males to support them in old age, he said.

Mr McNamara, who based his report partly on World Bank studies, said a significant drop in population growth rates in the 1970 s had led to a wide-

spread belief that the problem was over and that efforts to deal with it could be relaxed. “Such a view is totally in error,” he said. Without action, Africa’s 500 million people would expand to almost three billion by 2100, India would have 1.8 billion, 400 million more than China, and developing countries as a whole would contain almost 10 billion people, compared with 1.5 billion in the developed world. The giant cities of Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Bombay, and Jakarta would double their populations by the year 2000 and the number of developing world cities with more than 10 million inhabitants would rise from three to 21, he said.

“So much, then, for the supposed end of the population explosion,” Mr McNamara said. He said population growth was already a major contributor to a contemporary trend towards authoritarian government. More government restrictions on human rights of movement and reproduction within countries could be expected. ! Mr McNamara forecast ripple effects in the devel-

oped world from the rising human tide in less fortunate countries. Abundant supplies of lowcost labour would be a formidable Third World

asset in competing with industrialised countries in international markets for mass-produced goods, provided political stability were maintained, he said. • “The result could be massive and rapid structural change in the world economy through the relocation of entire branches of industry from the developed to the developing countries, with far-reaching employment consequences." But developed countries would not permit such an outcome.

“Instead, it is likely that the principles of free trade and capital mobility which have served the world economy well in the post-war years would increasingly be called into question.” Mr McNamara urged developing countries to try to contain the growth of their population. The developed world could help by providing aid for population programmes and by resisting pressures for protectionist barriers against Third World exports, he said.