Mr Hawke urged to take advantage of popularity

Press, 20 June 1984, Page 28

Mr Hawke urged to take advantage of popularity

NZPA staff correspondent Sydney

Pressure is mounting on the Australian Prime Minister, Mr Hawke, to take the country into a General Election late this year, since the release of the results of two national polls.

The Morgan Gallup poll showed Mr Hawke again with overwhelming popularity, while the Leader of the Opposition, Mr Peacock, was still battling to maintain his limping popularity, even among his own Liberal supporters. The poll rated Mr Peacock as the most unpopular recent Conservative Opposition leader, with only 36 per cent support among Liberal-National Party voters — 3 per cent lower than Mr Fraser’s worst rating and 8 per cent below the slump in the late Sir Robert Menzies’ backing. But while politicians were chewing over those figures, the Labour Party released the findings of a secret survey it had done throughout the nation in April, showing a high level of public support for the Government and its record so far.

According to reports, seven major areas were

reported as pluses for Labour in the poll, ranging from the Hawke-inspired spirit of consensus and the Government’s economic management to perceived disarrary of the Opposition.

With the news all good and an early election almost a foregone conclusion anyway, the argument within the party is whether to hold the election before Christmas or after.

It it is before, it is expected to be December 1, otherwise it will be in late February or early March. Mr Hawke’s parliamentary advisers are said to favour the earlier date, while the machine men at party headquarters want it later.

A December poll, according to observers in Can-, berra, would allow the Government to take advantage of the improving economic outlook, and tax cuts and pension rises expected in the August Budget. Counting against a poll in the new year will be the effect of school-leaver unemployment and the politically dead period over Christmas.

The economic argument also got a boost from the latest national accounts which show that the econo-

mic recovery is becoming more broadly based with real growth in the March quarter at 2.3 per cent, giving a total for the first three-quarters of the financial year of 9.2 per cent. The main argument for an early election at all is to bring the half-Senate election back into line with the General Election for the Lower House, saving the country an estimated sAustl3 million in electoral costs.

The Senate, in which Labour and the conservative coalition are almost equal footing, and the Democrats hold the balance, has earned the displeasure of both the Government and Labour supporters by twice blocking “bottom of the harbour” legislation to recoup hundreds of millions of dollars lost through tax evasion. That is expected to be the peg Mr Hawke will hang his election call on when he goes to the Governor-Gen-eral, Sir Ninian Stephen, but it might not be enough to convince the Queensland Premier, Mr Joh BjelkePetersen, who has threatened to stop the Senate poll in Queensland. Unlike the General Election, which is authorised by the Governor-General, the Senate election is formally

a state matter, with approval given by state governors at the behest of their state Governments.

Mr Bjelke-Petersen believes there is no reason for an early election in either the Senate of the House of Representatives, and while he cannot stop the latter, he has suggested he might block the Senate poll. According to the Morgan survey, the half-Senate poll could give Labour control of the Senate for the first time in its history, the key states being Queensland and Tasmania. There are 64 seats in the Senate, with 12 more to be added at the next election.

At present each state has 10 senators, while the Northern Territory and the Australian Capital Territory have two each. The 12 new seats will be divided equally among the six states. State senators are elected for six-year terms, and the elections are split so that there is a triennial poll for half of them, while territory senators have three-year terms.

With up to 90 people seeking election in each state in the past, Senate polls have been something of a tedious exercise for voters, but under amended electoral law this time they

are being offered the choice of voting for each individual or block-voting for one party. On Gallup Poll figures Labour is expected to sweep New South Wales, Victoria South Australia, and Western Australia, and it will be the remaining states, and Mr Bjelke-Petersen’s possible intransigence, which will be the key.