Twenty-eight seats targets for victory
OLIVER RIDDELL
in Wellington
Twenty-eight seats have been targeted by the four main political parties for the General Election on July 14. Another 10 seats have question marks over them. National and Labour are running campaigns throughout New Zealand, but Social Credit and the New Zealand Party have made it clear that they are interested only in seats in which they can make an impact. The two main parties have also targeted a number of seats. They hope also that any nationwide swing as a result of their efforts might pick up others. Of the 28 front-line seats, 16 are held by National, eight by Labour, two by Social Credit, and two (Tongariro and Glenfield), are new seats.
All four parties have strong expectations as to how they will fare in the battle for the 28 seats. Their hopes are tempered by the reality that in this election there are four parties in a position to influence the
results rather than just three as in 1975, 1978 and 1981.
The four party struggle has switched attention away from national regional, and even electorate percentage swings in support. Instead, all four parties are looking at numbers in the key electorates. Labour and National start the campaign levelly pegged; the last public opinion poll put them only a point apart. The same poll also put the New Zealand Party and Social Credit only a point apart.
That means that the two main parties have been able to realistically target more seats as potentially winnable.
Of the 28, National has targeted the 12 it does not hold, Labour has targeted 14 as well as the eight it holds; Social Credit has targeted three as well as the two it holds; and the New Zealand Party has targeted four. Of the less marginal 10 seats, National holds seven and Labour three. National has targeted three, Labour six, Social Credit two and the New Zealand Party two.
National and Labour remain the only parties with a chance of winning enough seats to form a government.
The 1981 result was confused for both parties by the 20 per cent of the vote won by Social Credit.
Since then, Social Credit’s popularity has declined in the polls to 6 per cent. It is not known where this 14 per cent has gone. Labour, National and the New Zealand Party have to choose their targets based on what they presume has happened to the former Social Credit voters.
National, Labour and Social Credit must also choose their targets based on where they presume New Zealand Party support will come from. Because of the confused picture none of the parties seem very concerned about percentage swings required to win or lose seats.
They are concerned instead to maximise support for their candidates in the target electorates because all four parties believe that numbers in key seats will count rather than their per centages in relationship to
each other. The 28 key electorates (with their holders) are. — Awarua (Nat.), Bay oi Islands (Nat.), Dunedin West (Lab.), East Coast Bays, (S.C.), Eden (Nat.), Fendalton (Nat.), Gisborne (Nat.), Glenfield (new seat), Hamilton East (Nat.), Hastings (Lab.), Horowhenua (Nat.), Kaimai (Nat.), Kaipara (Nat.), Kapiti (Lab.), Marlborough (Nat.), Miramar (Nat.), Nelson (Lab.), New Plymouth (Nat.), Ohariu (Nat.), Pakuranga (Nat.), Rangitikei (S.C.), Tasman (Lab.),' Tauranga (Nat.), Tongariro (new seat), Waitaki (Nat.), Wellington Central (Lab.), West Auckland (Lab.), Yaldhurst (Lab.).
The other 10 seats which are seen as less marginal are. —
Hawke’s Bay (Nat.), Invercargill (Nat.), Onehunga (Lab.), Otago (Nat.), Papukura (Nat.), Timaru (Lab.), Whangarei (Nat.), Wairarapa (Nat.), Waitotara (Nat.), and Wanganui (Lab.). All four parties hope for other seats, but the above are ones where there is a reasonable chance of a change.
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