Commodity production and exports forecast

Press, 9 March 1984, Page 22

Commodity production and exports forecast

The Agricultural Review Committee expects agricultural exports will increase by 12 per cent in 1983-84. In its report to the Minister of Agriculture, the committee says the major contributors will be meat and wool exports as stocks are run down and wool prices improve. . The adverse market conditions' for dairy products are expected to result in a small decline in dairy receipts. Among the highlights in the review committee’s report were the following

commodity analyses: • Average wool prices at auction for the 1983-84 season are expected to be 310 cents per kilogram. This is above that for last season (255.9 cents kg greasy) but stin falls short of the S.M.P. The committee said textile industries in several countries are showing some signs of expansion and high consumer demand in the United States is expected to continue, with demand increasing also in the E.E.C. Total wool production in New Zealand is forecast to decline. This Is a result of

both a reduced clip per head (down one per cent) from slightly fewer sheep shorn, and reduced slipe wool production (down 6 per cent) as a result of the lower level of lamb and mutton slaughterings. On a greasy equivalent basis, total wool production is expected to decrease by 2 per cent from 370,900 tonnes in 1982-83 to 363,000 tonnes in 1983-84.

Some 270,000 tonnes of wool (scoured equivalent) are expected to be exported during 1983-84, down 3 per cent for the year previously.

• Any improvement in beef prices until the second half of 1984 is likely to be only moderate, the committee said.

As a result of the Dairy Production Stabilisation Act 1983, present indications are that slaughterings in the United States will be approximately 370,000 head higher than might have been expected. This legislation is intended to cut dairy production by encouraging the increased culling of dairy cows, but this will also have the effect of increasing sup-

plies of domestic beef. Following the relatively high kill of recent years, the export beef slaughter in New Zealand is forecast to decline by 14 per cent. • Prices received for lamb in markets which include the key United Kingdom market are expected to be up on last season. The committee says the outlook for PM grade lamb on the United Kingdom market this season is for some price improvement. Little change in prices for mutton is expected in 1984. Total meat production, both for the local market and for export, for 1983-84 is forecast to fall by 7 per cent to 1,156,000 tonnes carcase weight equivalent from the previous year’s level of 1,240,400 tonnes. Beef production is expected to fall by 11 per cent, while mutton and lamb are expected to fall by

2 per cent and 5 per cent respectively. Export lamb slaughter for 1983-84 is forecast to decline to 33 million head, down 6 per cent on the previous season’s record

• The weakness in the international dairy market that was evident through much of 1983 is expected to continue well into 1984.

With milk production projected to continue its rising trend in the United States and the E.E.C., surplus stocks of dairy products aje unlikely to come down significantly from their present record levels unless countries make concerted efforts to stimulate domestic consumption.

In contrast to the declines in meat and wool production, record milk production was achieved in spring 1983 and total milkfat processed by dairy factories In 1983-84 is expected to reach 294,000 tonnes.

This compares with 290,300 for the 1982-83 season and the previous highest at 290,900 tonnes in 1979-80 season.

• The committee said export receipts for horticultural products are forecast to increase substantially, largely due to increased receipts for kiwifruit exports. Total kiwifruit production for 1983-84 is estimated to be 48,100 tonnes or 13 million trays, which is more

than double the 1982-83 production of approximately 22,200 tonnes or six million

trays. Total apple production is expected to be 256,000 tonnes or 13.8 million cartons — a 16 per cent increase on 1982-83 production.

Total cereal production for 1983-84 is expected to reach a record 1,083,700 tonnes.

The biggest part of this increase comes from a 53 per cent lift in anticipated barley production as well as small increases in maize production (6 per cent) and oat production (3 per cent). Wheat production is expected to decline by 12 per cent.