Lebanese peace talks

Press, 4 November 1983, Page 12

Lebanese peace talks

“There is no problem between Lebanese. If we as Lebanese get together, that does not mean our country is not occupied by Israelis, Syrians, and Palestinians,” said the Lebanese President, Mr Amin Gemayel, at the start of talks among Lebanese factions in Geneva. The statement is one of the more improbable likely to be heard during the week of talks. The talks are, after all, being held in Geneva because those opposed to the present Government did not feel safe about holding talks with the Government inside Lebanon, either at the Presidential Palace or at the airport in Beirut.' The hostile Lebanese factions are prepared to trust the Swiss authorities to keep order during the talks, but the Muslims and the Druses are not prepared to trust the Maronite Christian-dominated authorities in Beirut. In spite of what President Gemayel said, the presence of Israelis, Syrians, and Palestinians in Lebanon is overshadowed in importance by the distrust of the Lebanese factions among themselves.

The presence of foreign troops in Lebanon will be one of the important subjects discussed at the talks. Possibly it will be the matter on which the Lebanese find it easiest to agree. Although the Israelis have helped President' Gemayel and his Government, and have helped even more the Christian militia in the south of Lebanon, who were armed by the Israelis, even President Gemayel would like to see the Israelis leave Lebanon. The Muslims and the Druses might be more reluctant to see the Syrians go without a greater assurance of security,; but most Lebanese Muslims do not want the Syrians to stay forever. The removal of the Palestinians is made more difficult because there may be no other place for them to go. Even so, the Government and the Maronite Christians want them out of Lebanon, t 00.., < .

One of the continuing misconceptions about Lebanon is that . the presence of armed foreigners, especially the Palestinians, has been at the heart of Lebanon’s problems. The Palestinians have been disruptive and their raids on Israel from southern Lebanon brought reprisals from Israel, and encouraged Israeli attacks. But the Lebanese themselves have been torn by dissensions based on religious and other sectarian divisions. Under constitutional amendments made in 1943, the President of Lebanon must be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim and the other Ministers have to reflect the divisions in the community..

The Chamber of Deputies, the sole legislative House, has 99 seats of which the Maronites must hold 53. This distribution was based on a census held in the 19305. The delicate balance brought about by the allocation of positions to various communities could last only as long as there was no major change in the demography of Lebanon and in the power of the communities. Now it appears that 60 per cent of the population are Muslims. Yet the constitutional structure is such that the Maronites retain most of the power. The civil war of 1975 and 1976 was partly about the sharing of political power, and the continuation of the civil war, after the Israelis invaded in 1982 and then withdrew to the south, is also about the sharing of power. The Muslims and the Druses are calling for constitutional reform and are unlikely to make peace in Geneva, or anywhere else, until there is some prospect of constitutional changes in their favour.

President Gemayel is not likely to agree to any changes that would cost the Maronite Christians the dominant position that they have in Lebanon. Even if he did agree, he might not be able to persuade a significant part of the Maronite Christian community to support him. Because the communities have several clans, each with its own chieftin and private militia, the possibilities for resisting any agreement seem endless. The only hope for a settlement seems to be that a new constitution is devised which is seen to give protection to all the communities. That may be asking too much of the parties at the Geneva talks. The international peace-keeping force, made up of American, French, British, and Italian troops in Beirut, provides a lever on the Lebanese taking part in the Geneva talks. Because of the devastating terrorist attacks on the American and French forces, the Governments of the countries contributing to the force consider that the Lebanese factions should come quickly to some agreement. The peacekeepers have a thankless task. Their Governments would prefer to bring them home. When he made his statement to the peace conference in Geneva, President Gemayel also said that his country was dying. With Syrians occupying one part, Palestinians another, the Israelis another; and the rest under the domination of hostile Lebanese factions, one of which is the Lebanese Government, it could be said that Lebanon as a country has come perilously close to extinction.