Against President Marcos

Press, 27 September 1983, Page 16

Against President Marcos

Riots in the Philippines since the assassination of the Opposition leader, Mr Benigno Aquino, have left many people dead and many more injured. Now President Marcos, in a curious statement, has said that the Government’s policy of “maximum tolerance” has been discarded. The statement suggests that the security forces will show less restraint in putting down the protests. President Marcos realises that the outpouring of feeling about Mr Aquino, a popular politician, has turned into anti-Government feeling. He is branding opposition to his rule as communist-inspired and, in condemning chaos and anarchic behaviour, has mentioned the Churches and the schools as having a responsibility to avoid antiGovernment actions.

The opposition to President Marcos appears to be disorganised and incoherent. Mr Aquino, although he had been in exile for three years, was the recognised leader among the opposition groups. His assassination has removed the only obvious alternative to President Marcos — a point that has not been lost on many who suspect that President Marcos himself may have known about the assassination attempt before it happened.

President Marcos, under some pressure, set up a judicial commission to investigate the killing. There appears to be widespread scepticism in Manila about the commission being thorough and impartial. If President Marcos reimposes martial law, as he has been -threatening to do, this would probably remove any real prospect of maintaining credibility, either for the judicial inquiry or for the future of democracy in the Philippines. Besides the concern about the inquiry, there have been doubts in the Philippines about President Marcos’s health. The assassination of Mr Aquino casts

uncertainty over the visit to the Philippines in November of President Reagan. The visit has not been cancelled, but concern has been expressed for President Reagan’s safety. A correspondent of the “Far Eastern Economic Review” wrote recently, with compelling logic, that either President Marcos was involved in the killing of Mr Aquino, or there was reasonable doubt about the ability of the Philippines to provide adequate security for President Reagan. Either way, the conclusion appeared to be that President Reagan should not visit the Philippines. President Marcos is not, however, likely to find the logic so compelling. Because of the touchy relationship between the United States and the Philippines, a relationship in which the American naval base at Subic Bay and the Clark Air Force Base play important parts, strenuous efforts will be made to see that the visit is not called off. If the judicial commission reports before the Reagan visit, and clears the Government of all implication in the killing of Mr Aquino, this will help the Americans to make up their minds about whether President Reagan will visit. The Philippines occupies a crucial place in American defence planning in the western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. However distasteful the country’s regime, and it is no worse than a good many others round the world, the Americans cannot risk a break. The Philippines is central to American defence commitments round the rim of Asia, from Alaska to the Middle East. Only if the Marcos regime appeared to be about to fall would the United States be likely to seek some accommodation with its successor. President Marcos has vigorous, if disorganised opponents, but he is still firmly in control of the Philippines.