Impossible terms from Iran

Press, 4 August 1983, Page 18

Impossible terms from Iran

Iran has set, as conditions for peace with Iraq, complete Iraqi withdrawal from Iranian territory, payment by Iraq of war damages, and an undefined “punishment” of Iraq for its invasion. The question may justly be asked: is Iran serious about wanting peace? The withdrawal of Iraqi forces from the Iranian province of Khuzestan seems a fair requirement, but the payment of reparations — a figure of $150,000 million has been mentioned — and the “punishment” of Iraq would amount to unconditional surrender.

Iraq has no incentive yet to accept such conditions. Little in the war so far has given rise to any hope that a victor would be magnanimous. The Iranians, originally the injured party, say they are prepared to go on fighting until Iraq accepts Iran’s conditions. Iran might as well say it intends to fight on until it defeats Iraq. The war, which began in September, 1980, has been fought intermittently, with long periods when both combatants seemed to be exhausted. For the first few months Iraq was dominant and most of the fighting was inside Iran. Neither Iran nor Iraq threw all its military resources into the fight. Since then, the Iranian army has gradually turned back the Iraqi advance. Iraq still has by far the strongest air force, but has not used it to dominate the air. Iran was disorganised in the early months and only later began to reorganise its army and make sure the armed forces could use the equipment they had. Lack of maintenance of aircraft may mean that Iraq cannot use effectively the equipment it has now.

In the last week, Iran has mounted two major offensives, one on the northern front, the other in the centre. The northern offensive includes part of the area in which the Kurds live. Kurds have fought for both Iran and Iraq. In the past, Iranian Kurds have opposed the Government in Teheran, and Iraqi Kurds the Government in Bagdad. Kurds on both sides of the border want a separate State. Thus the northern front is an area of extreme sensitivity.

The second offensive, into the central area of Iraq, has not resulted in huge gains for Iran. Both sides make inflated claims about the casualties inflicted on the other. A reliable assessment of which side is winning becomes difficult. The Iranians have announced that they do not intend to launch an all-out campaign to beat Iraq, but will seek victory through a war of attrition. Such a strategy has some prospect of success. Iran is much larger and richer than Iraq. Casualty numbers are hard to assess. More reliable figures are emerging about the money Iraq is spending on the war. Because of the war, and because of the decline in the demand for oil, Iraq finds it difficult to finance the war. Iran’s economy is gradually recovering; it has a much larger population from which to recruit soldiers. Iraq is becoming dependent on arms from Egypt. Iraq is on the defensive, pushed into a ludicrous position where one of the world’s richest oil producers runs the risk of bankruptcy because of a war which appears to be continued through stubbornness. Neither Iran nor Iraq deserves much sympathy, but the rest of the world cannot be indifferent to a protracted war between two major Middle East oil producers. Besides that, a huge oil spill in the Gulf, as a result of the fighting, has damaged the area. The new offensives have led the United States to issue a warning that it will keep the Gulf open for navigation, whatever the events of the war. The fighting between Iran and Iraq lacks sense as it is; the tragedy would be compounded if other countries are drawn in. Mediation efforts have been attempted before. Neither Iran nor Iraq shows much interest in conciliation at present, but efforts will have to continue. A sudden change in the military fortunes of one side or the other could make a cease-fire an urgent necessity if the stability of the Middle East is to be preserved. After the casualties and bitterness of the last three years, neutral mediation will be an essential part of any progress towards a peaceful settlement.