Clear West German result

Press, 10 March 1983, Page 16

Clear West German result

The Christian Democrats’ win in the West German General Election is convincing enough to demonstrate that West Germans have made up their minds, on some issues at least. The economy of the Federal Republic of Germany is in poor shape with 2.5 million people unemployed. Although the Christian Democrats have formed the Government since December, the Social Democrats under Mr Helmut Schmidt had control of the economy until then. The election of the Christian Democrats so that they form the largest party in the Bundestag, the lower House bf Parliament, suggests that West Germans put their trust in the Christian Democrats, rather than the Social Democrats, to do something effective about the economy.

The Christian Democrats will form a coalition with the Free Democrats, who had their seats in the Bundestag reduced substantially, but who managed to get more than the 5 per cent of the votes, a requirement to retain seats. The Free Democrats, a generally liberal grouping, are unlikely to do anything to hinder the efforts of the Christian Democrats to repair the economy. Had the Social Democrats gained most seats they might have needed to rely on the votes of the Greens, some of whose members are committed to a policy of “zero growth.” The Greens gained 27 seats in the second federal election that they have contested. Their commitment to conservation, and against the stationing of nuclear missiles in West Germany, means that all West German parties will have to take account of the issues highlighted by the Greens.

The success of the Christian Democrats has resolved one aspect of the nuclear missile debate. The Christian Democrats - were committed to accepting American missiles in West Germany. The election held last week-end is significant because the missiles are due to be deployed this year in West Germany, Britain,

and Italy, if the talks between the United States and the Soviet Union being held in Geneva fail. The decision to deploy the missiles was taken in 1979.

Had the Social Democrats won it was not at all clear whether West Germany would have allowed the missiles to be stationed there. This would have thrown into uncertainty the socalled dual track negotiating approach taken by the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation. According to this approach, if the West is to persuade the Soviet Union to negotiate any reduction in the number of Soviet SS2O missiles, the West has no choice but to threaten to modernise its own medium-range nuclear missile potential. The ’ win by the Christian Democrats shows that many West Germans are prepared to accept the American missiles. The vote also demonstrates that the unity of N.A.T.O. remains intact. The outcome of the West German election will be studied diligently in Moscow. The Soviet Union had hopes that the “peace” movements in Europe would make it impossible for the Pershing and cruise missiles to be deployed in Europe. That issue of the stationing of missiles was at least as important in the West German election as was the economic management of the country. It could hardly have been a clearer test. The Soviet Union has been showing some flexibility over the missiles issue, but will need to show more. The United States, which has been arguing for the “zero option” — the scrapping of all Soviet medium range weapons in Eastern Europe in return for a promise by the West not to deploy any of the new American missiles — has not persuaded the Europeans that such a policy is acceptable. The United States, too, will need flexibility. The. result of the West German election means that the N.A.T.O. approach is intact. That should help both the United States and the Soviet Union to be flexible.