Thatcher rides high as opponents stumble

Press, 7 January 1983, Page 6

Thatcher rides high as opponents stumble

NZPA-Reuter London / The scent of a General Election in Britain this year is beginning to grow stronger, and no-one is smelling victory more than the Prime Minister, Mrs Margaret Thatcher.

While she continues to ride high on the Falklands victory, lower interest rates, and dropping inflation, her political opponents continue to grope for issues to knock the “Iron Lady” off course.

Labour is embroiled in a bitter internal — and sometimes public — wrangle with Right-wing.moderates trying to rid the party of the militant Left-wing group.

The Social Democrats and Liberals have an unsteady alliance under their allsmiles and back-slapping public front. Neither the Democrat-Lib-eral alliance nor Labour seem to be able to use the two “weapons” at their disposal — record unemployment and the anti-nuclear debate — which are Mrs Thatcher’s most vulnerable areas.

Labour has what the party faithful call an “emergency manifesto” on standby for an early election, possibly in June or July. The contents are unknown publicly, but are believed to be based on heavy spending of . Government funds to. ease unemployment. The Democrats’ leader. Roy Jenkins, once considered

to be a serious threat to Mrs Thatcher and her Government, has warned his party to be on its toes for an election in June. , Mrs Thatcher added a little fuel to the speculation with her New Year message to the Conservative Party...the Government is “bubbling with ideas” for a second term, she said. Just the thing to start Labour and ■-•the alliance scampering away’ to party planning rooms again. The Tory leader of the House of Commons, John Biffen, kept the Govern- • ment’s options open with a guarded forecast of next (northern) autumn — which would mean around October.

His prediction is backed by most members of Parliament, but the Liberals are not taking any chances. The Liberals’ leader. David Steel,

is telling his party to be ready from Easter onwards.

Through all this, Mrs Thatcher has kept her own hints to a minimum.

Everything she has said on the subject points to going a full term and holding an election in June next year. By then, her advisers argue, Mrs Thatcher’s latest and proposed internal Government changes will have had full effect.

She recently replaced and reshuffled some of the country’s top public servants. These men, said one Government member of Parliament, are the real power brokers in Britain... they do not have to face the polls for their mistakes.

Mrs Thatcher is also planning a Cabinet reshuffle but just how far it will go no-one is certain.

Those who believe it will be only superficial say that she will prefer to go to the polls with a battle-hardened team.

It is true that most of her Ministers have little difficulty in handling Michael Foot’s Labour team, or the alliance, or even the Government’s back-benchers.

Some reports say that there will be only one main change — the Environment Secretary, Mr Michael Heseltine, taking over from the retiring John Nott as Defence Secretary. The Home Secretary, Mr Willie Whitelaw, whose im-

migration law proposals caused the Government to be defeated in the Commons recently, is likely to be spared the axe. But he is tipped to “retire gracefully” to the House of Lords if Mrs Thatcher wins the next election.

The saving grace for some of the Cabinet's non-per-formers may be, as one political observer put it, Mrs Thatcher’s soft heart. According to those’who know her well, the tough exterior which earned her the title of “Iron Lady” covers a “kindly soul.”

' In times of stress she prefers, they say, to comfort and reassure those who really need “a swift kick.”

Meanwhile Mr Foot has been thwarted in his attempt to “rejuvenate” his front bench. Militants flexed their

muscles, as did some others who support the idea of keeping “mates” in important positions. His best political weapon is unemployment. Moves to elevate the education spokesman, Neil McKinnock — a young, impressive member of Parliament who could catch the public eye — to that vital portfolio failed dismally.

The Government taunts the Opposition over unemployment, rather than the other way round. Questions from the Opposition about the jobless are soon turned into a slanging match with Labour limping back heavily wounded.

The nuclear question is one which is shaping up as a serious election issue. Even Tory backroom workers admit’ that the Government's inability to match the political appeal of the nuclear unilateralists may cost votes. The party schemers agree wholeheartedly with the Government’s pro-deterrent stand but they say that the Government lacks an effective public argument to counter the unilateralists, who include among their number Mr Foot Mrs Thatcher believes that the nuclear question will do no harm to the Tory campaign. More than once she has left Mr Foot stumbling and grumbling on the floor of the House after he has called for Britain and the United

States to stop stockpiling nuclear weapons.

The conservative press had great delight in reporting Mrs Thatcher’s stock reply. She dared Mr Foot to make the same call on Russia. He failed to do so. Tory members of Parliament raucouslyshowed their joy.

One factor weighing heavily in favour of an election after October is the electoral redistribution which Mr Foot has ,o far unsuccessfully challenged in court. The boundary changes will give the Tories a 15-20 seat bonus, according to political observers.

To fight an election after a term of tough economic measures and win — perhaps with an improved majority — may be too big a temptation for Mrs Thatcher to ignore.