Gulf war more dangerous

Press, 9 October 1982, Page 14

Gulf war more dangerous

The war between Iraq and Iran remains as dangerous as it has been at any time since Iraq attacked its neighbour in September, 1980. Iranian troops had fought their way across the border into Iraq. Although Iran’s intentions remain unclear, Iraq’s capital, Bagdad, is only 100 kilometres away from the fighting and must be counted as the possible object of the Iranian forces. The Iranians’ successes have alarmed Arab countries, which feel that Iran must not become dominant over an Arab country. From the beginning of the war, Iraq tried to get the backing of other Arab countries. Because Iraq was seen to have started the war and, for a long period, to be defeating Iran, other Arab countries were inclined to be impatient with Iraq. Since Iraq has been put on the defensive, and may yet be defeated, the backing that Iraq sought is forthcoming, at least in word. One report says that Sudan plans to send troops to help Iraq. Such reinforcement is likely to intensify the war.

Some of Iran’s motives have been announced and some have not been admitted publicly. Early in September Ayatollah Khomeiny, the religious leader of Iran, announced that Iranian troops would clear Iraqi artillery' from border areas to prevent shelling across the border. Such an avowed aim cannot be reassuring. After all, it was with a similar announced intention that the Israeli troops launched their attack on Lebanon, then carried on until they controlled the Lebanese capital. Other announced aims of Iran are to obtain war reparations and to have the international community name Iraq as the aggressor.

President Saddam Hussein, of Iraq, has been blamed for the war and many calls have been made by Iran for his overthrow. All this would clearly be unacceptable to Iraq.

. A less conspicuous motive is to be fotind in the Iranians’ belief in their role as leaders in a world religious revolution. Ayatollah Khomeiny came to power in a wave of Shi’ite fervour. Iranians of this Islamic sect have a missionary zeal to encourage others to share their experience.

Doubtless they are wondering why Shi'ites in Iraq have not attempted to overthrow President Saddam Hussein. The Iranian soldiers may be seen as Shi’ite support for fellow Shi’ites in a neighbouring country. This motive, too, gives rise to little hope. Religious zealots are not usually the quickest to admit that the cause they have undertaken is one not widely acceptable to many people. In Iraq, nationalism will vie with Shi’ism as a cause for loyalty. The Iranians will not admit openly that the war distracts attention from troublesome matters at home or that the war gives the soldiers something to do. Keeping the troops busy is of great importance in a country in- which, until recently, the military held considerable power and positions of privilege. Success in expelling the Iraqis from Iran and in entering Iraq strengthens the political hand of the military. The religious leaders have had the running of Iran very much their own way and they will not welcome any demands by the military for the sharing of power. Neither of these motives for a continuation of the war gives rise to any hope that Iran will want the war brought to a speedy end.

Although Iran’s nationalist, political, and religious aims seem incapable of fulfilment, the military consideration alone may determine the outcome. The Iraqis may be able to bring about a stalemate. If the Iranians continue to advance towards Bagdad, the Iraqis will be prepared to accept help from other Arab countries for the sake of self-preservation and to demonstrate the Arab unity on which they have placed so much emphasis. Such a widening of the conflict might have disastrous consequences for the whole area. Because Middle East conflicts have ramifications far beyond the immediate area, the rest of the world would be in greater danger. Efforts have already been made by the United Nations and by the Islamic Conference to mediate between Iran and Iraq. No chance should be lost in continuing all efforts to pacify the two countries in spite of a lack of success so far.