Assassination in Lebanon

Press, 16 September 1982, Page 16

Assassination in Lebanon

The assassination of the man who was to take over as President of Lebanon at the end of next week is another reminder, from a country from which /no more 'reminders were needed, of the. sickening violence that, has plagueci the/-country. Bashir Gemayel was ho • stranger to; violence himself and his "past deeds as leader of./a powerful miljtia aroused fears /among Palestinians and' among’ Muslims about how they would fare in a Lebanon in which Mr Gemayel was the most powerful political figure. Mr Gemayel had also earned the hatred of another Maronite faction because of the death of the son of a former President.

Mr Gemayel did not want for enemies and a large number of people and groups had motives for killing him. Muslims or Palestinians may have' been responsible but an earlier attempt to kill him, which resulted in the death .of his daughter, was • the work of another Maronite faction. The assassin may have come from any of these groups or from another altogether.

Political considerations about the future of Lebanon without Bashir Gemayel are foremost. The procedure by which he became the President-elect left -a great deal to be desired on democratic grounds, but he was undoubtedly a man of very great influence. The Lebanese Parliament, which has overrun its term by some years, chose Mr Gemayel on August 23. The President of Lebanon is traditionally a Maronite Christian but just as traditionally he has been acceptable to Muslims within Lebanon. Last month there was no question of negotiation: Mr Gemayel was the only , Maronite candidate and the Parliament •assembled. to vote- him in ■ as President under - suspicious’ circumstances. The Maronite military faction Mr Gemayel led outnumbered the Lebanese; Army outside the building-in which the Parliament met.

The Muslims of the' : north of the country boycotted the election. Actions of the powers outside will do much to control the destiny of Lebanon. Chief among these is Israel which has invaded Lebanon and; whose forces are in no hurry to depart until their designs are fulfilled. Israel had hopes that'Mr Gemayel would sigh a peace 7 treaty with Israel and that Mr Gemayel was sufficiently strong to unite Lebanon. The result of Mr Gemayel’s death is that the Israelis. will be more reluctant than ever to leave Lebanon. Israel hoped that Mr Gemayel would ask the Syrians, who are' in Lebanon forming the Arab Deterrent Force, to .leave Lebanon. The Israelis seem likely to stay’ until someone who would get the Syrians to go takes over. Finding such a person will be difficult. Possibly, the Gemayel faction will put up one of Bashir Gemayel’s brothers as a Presidential candidate, but .that would seem more of an imposed solution than was Mr Gemayel’s election. For President Reagan, and the Americans, the assassination is a major blow against the peace plan. The plan depended on Israel leaving Lebanon and being prepared to accept the selfgovernment of the Palestinians on the West Bank and in Gaza. Now, because of the disorder that may continue in Lebanon, Mr Reagan will find it hard to put his plan, which was a good one, into effect. When the Arab countries met in Morocco they put forward their own peace plan for the Middle East but this did not. involve a rejection of the Reagan plan. The question of Lebanon, because of the assassination of Mr Gemayel, has been plunged into confusion. Unless a strong leader acceptable to at least a fair number of the parties and factions can be found, the chances of. civil war in Lebanon appear strong.