Poll in May puts National ahead

Press, 17 June 1982, Page 2

Poll in May puts National ahead

The National Party moved from a one-point lead over Labour early in February to a four-point lead in th? middle of May, as shown by the latest “New Zealand Her-ald”-National Research Bureau survey of voters’ preferences.

The poll showed National with 42 per cent support, as compared with 40 per cent in February. Labour slipped one percentage point, to 38 per cent; and Social Credit also slipped one point, to 19 per cent.

The “Herald”-N.R.B. poll was held from May 15 to May 19. It covered 2000 eligible voters selected by random probability methods from New Zealand's 20 main population centres. The period between the February and May polls saw the opening of the new Parliament and the completion of the Address-in-Reply debate.

The Falklands crisis began early in April, and the Government made a number of moves against Argentina and in support of Britain.

Tax reform was often in the news, and the Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon) offered the thought that this year’s Budget might prove unpopular. The preliminaries to the National Party’s presidential contest were given much publicity. From early February to mid-May, Labour was often in the news after the party leader (Mr Rowling), floated a proposal to loosen the ties between unions and the Labour Party. Early in May the Federation of Labour conference gave a polite but less than enthusiastic reception to Mr Rowling, and six days later, at the Labour Party Conference, about 100 of the 600

delegates were absent when he made his main speech. The Labour Party conference received a report from a working group calling for encouragement of more unions to affiliate with ' the party. The conference ended on the eve of the “Herald"N.R.B. poll and may. have helped to influence voters’ choices. Social Credit made the news chiefly for its stance on voting in Parliament and in a row with the Labour Party over the granting of pairs. The “Herald”-N.R.B. poll asked: “If . an election had been held, yesterday, which party would you have voted for?" The answers of intending voters are compared with those in the February poll and with the voting results in the 1981 General Election.

Fiteen per cent of eligible voters are uncommitted (that is, they said they would not vote, or did not know, or refused to say which party they would vote for), as compared with 13 per cent in February and the 12 per cent non-vote in the November election.

The poll figures are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. The loyalty and switching patterns of current intending voters, with February figures in brackets, are:— Of 1981 National voters, 95 per cent would remain loyal (96 per cent), 3 per cent would switch to Labour (2 per cent) and 2 per cent to Social Credit (2 per cent).

Of 1981 Labour voters. 92 per cent would remain loyal (95 per cent). 4 per cent would switch to National (1 per cent). 3 per cent to Social Credit (4 per cent), and 1 per cent to all others (none). Of 1981 Social Credit voters. 84 per cent would remain loyal (86 per cent), 8 per cent would switch to Labour (7 per cent), and 8 per cent to National (7 per cent).

Of newly eligible voters, 49 per cent support National (33 per cent). 32 per cent Labour (48 per cent), and 19 per cent Social Credit (19 per cent).

Of 1981 non-voters who would vote now. 30 per cent support Labour (23 per cent), 54 per cent National (50 per cent), 16. per cent Social Credit (25 per cent), and none support Values (2 per cent). Support for National is highest in Dunedin provincial areas, among people aged 55 and over, and among men. It is lowest in Dunedin city, among people aged 18 to 24, and among women. Support for Labour is highest in Wellington provincial areas, among people aged 35 to 44, and among women. It is lowest in Dunedin provincial areas, among people aged 25 to 34, and among men. Support for Social Credit is highest in Auckland city, among people aged 18 to 24, and among women. It is lowest in Christchurch provincial areas, among people aged 55 and over, and among men. Present main-party supporters, and the 15 out of every 100 who form the uncommitted group, voted as follows (read downwards) in the 1981 General Election.— ’Bl vote Nat. Lab. S.C. Unc.

The sex and age characteristics of current main-party supporters and the uncommitted group are:— Nat. Lab. S.C. Unc.

Copyright, 1982 — “New Zealand Herald” TOMORROW: Changes in voters’ ranking of choices for Prime Minister.

Elec. Nat. May Feb Nov ’82 '82 '81 % % % 42 40 39 Lab. 38 39 39 Socred. 19 20 21 Others 1 1 1

% % % % Nat. 85 2 4 10 Lab. 3 87 6 18 Socred 3 4 82 11 Others - 1 1 1 Didn’t vote 5 3 4 53 New voters 4 3 3 7

' % % _% % Women ' 47 51 53 55 Men 53 49 47 45 18-24 15 18 29 26 25-34 ' 23 21 26 18 35-44 16 17 14 16 45-54 16 16 13 14 5530 28 18 26