Poland is being hurt

Press, 4 February 1982, Page 16

Poland is being hurt

The economic sanction's being imposed on Poland appear to be hurting that country. The general condition of Poland’s economy is, for its part, hurting American taxpayers, who are having to meet a debt to American banks incurred by Poland. Because of the huge amounts of money owed to American banks by many countries of the world, including many developing countries, there is likely to be an investigation into which of these debts may also need to be settled by the American taxpayers. The legal position varies. Some of the debts, including the Polish debts, were guaranteed by the United States Government. Some are not guaranteed. The fact that the Government settled the $7l million debt does not mean that the United States will not, itself, try to recover the money from the Polish Government. However, the Polish Government, under severe sanctions imposed by the United States, and sanctions imposed by allies of the United States, will probably not be in a hurry to pay up.

The sanctions are only part of the mess that the military Government in Poland has created. The price rises, the continuing tension between trade unionists and the military, and the shortages of food and raw materials, have all contributed to the clashes, that have occurred. The military Government itself creates a problem. It is highly likely that if its tight controls are relaxed there will be riots. This might

bring about a continuation of military rule. The longer the rule by the military lasts, the more likely it becomes that the military authorities will want to retain power. The position is familiar enough in many non-communist countries — Pakistan is one of the most striking recent examples.

To some extent the endorsement of the imposition of martial law by the Polish Parliament gives a semblance of legality to the present Government. But it is by no means certain that Poland can revert to civilian rule in the forseeable future. The Soviet Union welcomed the imposition of martial law in Poland; its attitude to prolonged military rule remains to be seen. One of the most dismaying aspects of the whole affair is that the world is becoming divided again into the rigid EastWest. blocs of the 19505. A return to uncompromising communism in Poland is encouraged by the military Government. This may generate a greater sense of unity among all the Eastern European countries. The East will face a Western bloc itself becoming unified because of the seeming need to remain as one. It would be foolhardy to believe that the Communist world is going to be brought to its knees by the sanctions, though there will be great privations. The further suggestion that the Madrid talks on security and co-operation in Europe, and the Geneva disarmament talks, might be suspended, underlines the growing confrontation between the two blocs.