Nat. support less than in 1978

Press, 14 November 1981, Page 1

Nat. support less than in 1978

As the formal 1981 election campaign began, the National Party had a seven-point lead over Labour. In 1978, National’s lead was nine points, and in- 1975 it was two points. Intending voters in the latest poll gave 42 per cent support to National, 35 per cent to Labour, and 22 per cent to Social Credit. However, 21 per cent of eligible voters — that is, of all voters and not just of intending voters — expressed themselves as uncommitted.

Those findings come from a “New Zealand Herald”-National Research Bureau survey conducted throughout the country from October 31 to November 4. The survey covered 2000 eligible voters selected by random probability methods from New Zealand's 20 main population centres. At the equivalent survey in 1978, the division of intending voters was National 44 per cent, Labour 35, Social Credit 17, and Values three. Uncommitted eligible voters totalled 22 per cent. In 1975, the figures for intending voters were National 46, Labour 44, Social Credit six and Values 4, with 19 per cent of eligible voters uncommitted.

The result of the poll cannot be used on its own to predict the outcome of the election. Rather, it is a measure of voters’ attitudes at the time of the survey and excludes the uncommitted vote. Nor can it be used to assess the distribution of seats.

However, evidence from other elections indicates that the winner requires a favourable long-term poll trend, which at present favours National. The winner also requires a

Twenty-one per cent of eligible voters are uncommitted (that is, they said they would not vote, or did not know, or refused to say which party they would vote for). The percentage is unchanged from that of September. The figures in the poll are subject to a maximum statistical sampling error of plus or minus 2 per cent. The loyalty and switching patterns of current intending voters, with September figures in parentheses, are: Of 1978 National voters, 87 per cent would remain loyal (85 per cent), 5 per cent would switch to Labour (unchanged), 7 per cent to Social Credit (9 per cent), and 1 per cent to all others (unchanged). Of 1978 Labour voters, 79 per cent would remain loyal (78 per cent), 7 per cent would switch to National (6 per cent), 13 per cent to Social Credit (16 per cent), and 1 per cent to all others (none). Of 1978 Social Credit voters, 70 per cent would remain loyal (79 per cent), 17 per cent would switch to Labour (10 per cent), 12 per cent to National (11 per cent), and 1 per cent to all others (none). Of 1978 Values voters, 9 per cent would remain loyal (12 per cent), 40 per cent would switch to Labour (47 per cent), 25 per cent

favourable short-term movement during the election campaign. In the last three elections, the movements during the campaigns have favoured the opposition parties. In 1972, Labour gained 5 per cent support, in 1975 National gained 6 per cent, and in 1978 Labour gained 9 per pent.

Between the latest poll and the previous poll, which was held in mid-September, a major focus of public attention was the performance of the Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon) at the Commonwealth heads-of-govefnment meeting in Melbourne early last month. The Leader of the Opposition (Mr Rowling) also attracted attention with visits to Sydney and Melbourne. The main political parties issued their policies almost continuously throughout the period between the polls. On the eve of the formal campaign, the key issue was defined by Mr Muldoon as his party’s growth strategy, by Mr Rowling as unemployment linked with other matters, and by the Social Credit leader (Mr Beetham) as inflation. Because of the timing of the survey, some respondents may have been influenced by the opening campaign speeches of Mr Muldoon and Mr Rowling on November 2 and 3. It is unlikely, however, that the opening speeches have influenced the poll as a whole.

The ‘•Herald”-N.R.B. survey asked: “If an election had been held yesterday, which party would you have voted for?” The answers of the intending voters, as compared with the result of the 1978 General Election and the findings of other polls, were:

to National (13 per cent), 23 per cent to Social Credit (19 per cent), and 3 per cent to all others (9 per cent). •

Of newly eligible voters, 43 per cent support National (unchanged), 27 per cent Labour (33 per cent), 28 per cent Social Credit (24 per cent), and 2 per cent Values (none). Of 1978 non-voters who would now vote, 29 per cent support Labour (20 per cent), 46 per cent support National (unchanged), 25 per cent support Social Credit (30 per cent), none support Values (3 per cent), and none support all others (1 per cent).

Support for National is highest in Wellington City, among people aged 55 and older, and among women.- It is lowest in Christchurch provincial areas, among people aged 25 to 34, and among men. Support for Labour is highest in Christchurch City, among people aged 55 and older, and among women. It is lowest in Auckland City, among people aged 18 to 24, and among men. Support for Social Credit is highest in Auckland City, among people aged 18 to 24, and among men. It is lowest in Christchurch provincial areas, among people aged 55 and over, and among women.

MONDAY: Voters assess the politicians — one party leader up, one down, one the same.

Nov 81 % Sept 81 % July 81 % May81 % Mar 81 % Jan 81 % • Nov 80 % July 80 % Mav 80 % Nov 79 % July 79 % May 79 % Nov78 elec % National 42 40 42 42 43 38 38 40 41 38 36 33 40 Labour 35 34 34 30 27 30 30 39 38 39 43 43 40 Socred 22 25 23 27 29 31 31 19 19 21 19 22 16 Values — 1 — 1 — 1 1 1 2 1 2 2 3 All others 1 — 1 — 1 — — 1 — 1 — — 1

Present party supporters, and the 21 out of every 100 polled who form the uncommitted group, voted as follows (read downwards) in the 1978 General Election: 1978 vote National Labour Soured Uncommitted % % % ' % National 69 5 11 14 Labour 6 72 19 19 Social Credit 4 6 41 7 Values 1 2 2 1 All others 1 1 2 1 Did not vote 10 7 14 49 New voters 9 7 11 9 The sex and age characteristics of present party supporters and the uncommitted group are: Uncommitted National Labour Socred % % % . % Women ' 51 53 45 52 Men 49 , ' 47 55 48 18-24-year-olds 19 17 30 18 25-34-year-olds 19 22 23 22 35-44-year-olds 16 15 17 17 45-54-year-olds 16 16 14 16 55 and over 30 30 16 27 Copyright 1981—The “New Zealand Herald.’’