Strong challenge likely for Labour in Roskill

Press, 22 October 1981, Page 4

Strong challenge likely for Labour in Roskill

Special correspondent Labour is confident of holding the Mount Albert seat, but it is keeping a wary eye on the challenge next door in Roskill. While both electorates have been firmly in Labour's grip for many years, the retirement of two long-serv-ing members of Parliament has injected some uncertainty in this year's contest. The unpredictable factor is the depth of the personal following for Mr Warren Freer and Mr Arthur Faulkner.

National candidates believe they have a real chance of taking both seats after the retirement of the two senior politicians. They argue that many of the people who kept Mr Freer in Mount Albert for 34

years and Mr Faulkner in Roskill for 24 years will now be “floating voters.” Labour, however, is wprking hard to consolidate party support and convince voters that its new breed will do just as good a job as the old. National appears to be the greatest threat posed to Labour in Roskill.

The party’s candidate, Miss Cheryl Parsons, and Labour’s Mr Philip Goff are both campaigning full-time to win the seat which Mr Faulkner held with a 1671vote majority three years ago.

Miss Parsons says National’s electorate organisation is better than it was in 1978, enabling her to make a stronger bid for the vital uncommitted voters.

While she predicts a "close result,” the Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon) has gone a step further and tagged Roskill as one of the nine Labour seats that will fall to National. .

Mr Goff agrees that the result could be close, but has detected a definite movement against the Government. its leadership and “think big" policies in particular.

Social Credit's hopeful in Roskill, Mr Christopher Lynch, has no doubt that Labour will hold the seat. Convinced from canvassing that 30 per cent of voters are still uncommitted, he has hopes of picking up enough support to push National into third place. However, Social Credit’s chances of finishing second

seem more likely to succeed in Mount Albert where Mr Michael Dance, who contested the seat in• 1978, has been campaigning vigorously

to boost his 12.2 per cent share of the vote. He aims to finish within 2000 votes of Labour's Helen Clark, which, he says would make a Social Credit takpver feasible in 1984.

Despite being a newcomer to the electorate, Miss Clark appears to be in a very strong position. With a steadily increasing membership, from 970 to nearly 1300 in the last few months, she can feel confident of at least retaining the 2861-vote majority Labour polled last time. As well as winning traditional party support, she seems to be appealing to the younger age-group buying into the area.

Undaunted by his opponent’s confidence, Mr Warren Moyes is convinced he can surprise Labour by winning the seat for National.

The sitting member for Waitakere, Mr Ralph Maxwell, has been leaving much of the door-knocking to his party machine this election, while he fights the battle for Labour in Parliament.

This strategy may cost him his seat as both Social Credit and National regard Waitakere as winnable and his two rival candidates have put in a lot of footwork.

At this stage it looks as though Mr Maxwell's greatest challenge will come from Social Credit’s Mrs Pat Wojick, a veteran campaigner well liked and known in the area.

She is fighting her fourth election for Social Credit and has stood for New Lynn and Waitakere before. While she has reason for her optimism Waitakere could produce a peculiar result if the Labour vote continues to decline, a trend which began at the last election.

That possibility is being fully exploited by National’s Mr Martin Gummer. He has been wheeling in some of his party’s well known Cabinet “heavies” to his meetings as draw-cards. National believes a stiff three-cornered fight could leave them with the winnings in this once Labour stronghold. The National effort is

clearly visible- although for many in the electorate it may well be regarded as a somewhat alien force. However, Mr Maxwell is happy with the way his campaign is going and gives full credit to his supporters for their weekly efforts while he is in Parliament.

He is confident that now he is known as an Opposition backbencher a few weeks of intensive campaigning should suffice, apart from week-end work.

He points to Labour's increasing party membership in the electorate as evidence of the party's growing popularity. Mrs W'ojick said Social Credit’s Waitakere membership is now at the same level

that Mr Gary Knapp's was when he won East Coast £ Bays for Social Credit. She is more than happy with they response she has been get- 1 ting. At New Lynn things seem , more cut-and-dried for the sitting Labour member. Mr Jonathan Hunt. He asserts that Labour Party membership has risen 25 per cent, to just over 1000. A very capable party organiser in Parliament, he is not the sort of person likely to be caught napping in his electorate. But the Social Credit candidate, Mr Bruce Tasker, is confident his party will at least take second place from National, and says it may win the seat. He says Social Credit has 500 members. A solid door-knocking campaign has revealed a lot of uncommitted voters interested in his party. The National candidate. Mr R. A. Hanson, has also been working hard. He says there are 30 to 35 per cent of uncommitted voters in the electorate who will give him at least a fighting chance of winning the seat. In spite of pockets of g National supporters. Te Atutu rests safely in the Labour Party’s grip. The seat is held by Dr M. E. R Bassett, with a 2819 majority. This time he aims to increase his majority to 4000. The real interest in polling will be in the race for second place. In 1978, National easily filled that position by securing almost 3000 more • votes than Social Credit.

The Social Credit candidate is Mr R. S. Wilson, who has virtually acknowledged that his aim is to take second '** place. Mrs Stella Noble is standing for National. ....