Zimbabwe confounds its doomsayers

Press, 7 August 1981, Page 12

Zimbabwe confounds its doomsayers

By

GWYNNE DYER

in London

Two years ago. the "Angola scenario” dominated all predictions about the future of Zimbabwe. You could not find a single diplomat or journalist with any, experience of Africa who dared to hope that the long war against white minority rule could end otherwise than 'in carnage, chaos and massive white flight, followed by civil war between the two victorious black guerrilla armies. Happily, we were all wrong.

As recently as last February, after clashes between the tribaily based guerrilla forces of the Prime Minister. Mr Robert Mugabe, and the Patriotic Front Leader. Mr Joshua Nkomo. killed over 200 people, there was real fear that Zimbabwe’s new-found peace would be shattered by civil war. But the last of the guerrillas were successfully disarmed in May. and all will have been absorbed into the regular army by the end of this year. Only 18 months after a ceasefire ended seven years of

vicious guerrilla war.. Zimbabwe is one of the half-dozen most peaceful, prosperous and democratic nations in Africa. A million refugees have been resettled, the school population has doubled, and domestic consumption has grown by 40 per cent in the past year/ The country's 5000 white farmers, who provide 90 per cent of the agricultural produce that reaches the market, were the political backbone of the old Rhodesian Front. Even after the long struggle to preserve white minority rule had been lost, their slogan in last year's pre-independence elections was “Anybody but Mugabe." Now they frequently refer to Mr Mugabe as “Good old Bob.”

From the very beginning. Mr Mugabe was determined to bring about a reconciliation between black and white, so that the invaluable skills among Zimbabwe's 200,000 whites should not be lost to the nation's economy. Despite all the bitterness engendered by

three generations of white settler rule and almost a decade of war. Mr Mugabe understands that Zimbabwe's impressive level of development owes much to the white presence.

The two million' urban blacks, for example, are fed almost entirely by the produce from white farms. If Zimbabwe's whites left en masse, most of the country’s people would be condemned to rural subsistence or urban indigence — which, given that Zimbabwe's population is nowseven million, would mean in practice semi-starvation. The history of white colonialism in Africa must be lamented, but the facts it created cannot be ignored with impunity. Mr Mugabe has no objection to the departure of the many semi-skilled, semi-nomadic whites who flocked into Rhodesia during the war to take advantage of the privileged status whites then enjoyed, and who now comprise the majority of the.2ooo whites leaving each month. But he desperately wants to keep the real white

Zimbabweans, who have- a stake in the country and who are indispensable to the running of its relatively developed economy.

Significantly, the only white member of Mr Mugabe's cabinet is the Minister of Agriculture. Mr Denis Norman, the former president of the Commercial Farmers' Union. The country’s commercial farmers have responded to this gesture, and to his realistic pricing policies, by doubling their production of maize this year, and giving Zimbabwe a milliontonne surplus to export to its neighbours. It is not only white farmers who have been convinced by Mr Mugabe that they can still have a home in Zimbabwe; even though their racial overlordship is gone. A year ago most Zimbabwean factories were working only one shift a day. Now the lights blaze through the night in the industrial zones of Salisbury and the other major cities, and 100.000 young urban blacks have found jobs in the past twelve months. Even more important than

black-white reconciliation in Zimbabwe, however, was black-black reconciliation. In this vital task Mr Mugabe has had a worthy partner: Mr Joshua Nkomd. Africa’s most gallant and honourable political loser.

Mr Nkomo is the father of modern black Zimbabwean nationalism, but he was bound to lose. His main tribal supporters. the Ndebeles. are only 18 per cent of Zimbabwe's black population, whereas the Shonas, whom Mr Mugabe led, are almost 80 per cent. The two men commanded separate guerrilla armies and fought virtually separate wars against the white minority regime. The resentment of the Ndebeles at Mr Nkomo's defeat in the preindependence election raised the threat of civil war and even secession.

Far from exploiting this re-., sentment, Mr Nkomo has done everything he could to control it. His influence was crucial in quelling the inter-tribal battles between the two guerrilla ar-,; mies in February,, and in per- ' suading the last of his guerril-

las to give up th e j r arms peacefully in May. a n lr u^, ugat)e now feels safe t 0 annou nce that the Zimbabwean regular . armv, swollen to 60.0Q0 me n by the need to give jobs to all the status-hungry ex-guerrillas, u UCed kv half. Mr Nkom? has even given his conditional approval to a oneparty system, which is probably essential eventually if ZiniDabuc is not to be torn apart by tribal rivalries, Zimbabwe has not become an earthly paradise. Racists of both colours continue to harrass each other. Inflation is starting to rise rapidly, and the South African Government is putting Zimbabwe un( j e r severe economic and political pressures.

But every country in the world has its problems. The remarkable achievement of Mr Mugabe and Mr Nkomo (and many other Zimbabweans black and white) has been to act with such restraint that Zimbabwe’s problems have been rapidly reduced to a manageable scale.