Reagan and South Africa

Press, 4 July 1981, Page 16

Reagan and South Africa

By

VICTORIA THOMAS

“Observer,” London

The Reagan Administration should adopt a firm antiapartheid . stance towards South Africa, says a report funded by the Rockefeller foundation. This, the report insists, may be done while serving the full range of United States interests. "South Africa: Time Running Out," published by the University of California Press, is the result of two years' research by the Study Commission on United States Policy Towards . Southern Africa. Members of the commission visited nine African countries, and met government and business leaders in Britain, France, and West Germany, as well as numerous bodies in the United States and South Africa.

The commission began its work "with the firm conviction that apartheid is wrong," according to its chairman, Franklin Thomas, "but did not come to its task _ with preformed conclusions ' as to the relative importance of United States interests or policies for advancing them.” A basic assumption is that whatever the South African Government does to re- . inforce the status quo, black forces inside the country will eventually alter it. Inevitable evolutionary progress may be slow and sporadically violent. and measures must be taken to prevent a more

violent descent into civil war.

The report sets five targets:

1. To make clear the fundamental and continuing opposition of the United States Government and people to the system of apartheid, with particular emphasis on the exclusion of blacks from an effective share in political power.

2. To promote genuine political power-sharing in South Africa with a minimum of violence bv systematically exerting influence on the South African Government.

3. To support organisations inside South Africa working for change, assist the development of black leadership, and promote black welfare. 4. To assist the economic development of the other States in southern Africa, including reduction of the imbalance in their relations with South Africa.

5. To reduce the impact of stoppages of imports of key minerals from South Africa.

The two prime considerations vital to the interests of the United States are that United States military and strategic interests must be

protected and Soviet influence minimised, and that adequate supplies of key minerals must be ensured.

Unimpeded use of the Cape sea route, along which most of the West's oil passes, is of particular strategic importance, but the active help of the South African Government is not considered an important factor in protecting this route. Greater potential danger is seen in the growth of Soviet influence promoted by political instability and armed conflict in the region. The report suggests that a peaceful negotiated resolution may be achieved with the encouragement of Powers outside South Africa. South Africa is the world's fourth largest supplier of non-fuel minerals and has the world's largest known deposits of chromium, manganese. platinum, vanadium, and gold. Chromium, manganese, and vanadium are vital to the production of steel. Platinum group metals serve as catalytic agents in refining petroleum and in reducing vehicle emissions. These four minerals are thus essential to Western industry and defence.

The report recommends

increased Government stockpiles and increasing imports from other countries to reduce the impact if South African supplies are cut off.

The United States is almost entirely dependent on imported chromium and manganese ore. South Africa is the largest producer of chromite ore, 'mining a third of the world's supply and 44 per cent of that from nonCommunist countries. It is also the largest producer of manganese, possessing more than 50 per cent of the free world's reserves. In the event of a shortterm (up to five years) loss of supplies from South Africa, the report considers that the United States could have sufficient stockpiles to get by. If there were a medium-or long-term loss of chromium supplies, alternative supply sources would have to be’ developed. The United States is potentially self-sufficient in vanadium and could therefore adjust to the loss of imports from South Africa.

As to the platinum group of metals, the United States imports about 90 per cent of its consumption, with South Africa supplying more than half. However, the impact of stoppages could be reduced by stockpiling, substitution by other metals, and the development of new technologies.

In the belief that shortterm interruptions of mineral supplies would be manageable, but that any longterm hostility to the West by the peoples of southern Africa would be extremely serious, the Study Commission makes the following recomendations:

© American corporations operating in South Africa must not expand their operations, while those already present should “stay put" until a genuine, sharing of political power is achieved. © These American corporations should commit "a generous proportion of their corporate resources ... to improve the lives of black Africans." © The United State’s Government should broaden the present embargo on the transfer of arms and associated equipment to South Africa, and formally embargo the transfer of nuclear fuel, technology and services.

® The United State's Commerce Department should use its authority to regulate exports in order to signal American response to particular positive or negative actions by the South African Government. ® United States aid to other countries in southern Africa should be increased to correct the inbalance in their economic relations with Pretoria.