Soviet invasion still possible say diplomats

Press, 9 April 1981, Page 8

Soviet invasion still possible say diplomats

NZPA-Reuter Moscow Western diplomats believe there still is a possibility of Warsaw Pact intervention in Poland despite what appears to be a softening of attitudes by Moscow over the crisis. ’ Diplomats yesterday acknowledged a possible link between the end of three weeks of Warsaw Pact manoeuvres in and around Poland and remarks by the Soviet leader, Leonid Brezhnev, in which he appeared to express cautious optimism that the Polish'Communist Party would be able to solve the crisis. But they added that Mr Brezhnev’s', pointed references in almost the same breath to the 1968 Czechoslovak crisis was a clear enough message to Polish leaders that Moscow’s patience was long but not limitless. The diplomats said there was an ambiguous nature in Mr Brezhnev’s key words to the Czechoslovak Communist Party congress on tuesday. The kremlin leader said: “The Polish Communists, supported by all true patriots of Poland, will be able, one must suppose, to give the necessary rebuff to the enemies of the socialist system and uphold the cause of socialism. Inclusion of the phrase “one must suppose,” clearly 'audible in Mr Brezhnev’s televised speech in Moscow, indicated something less than a statement of confidence in the present Warsaw leadership, the diplomats said. The symbolic nature of Mr Brezhnev’s presence in Prague where Soviet-led forces ended a liberalisation move-

ment 13 years ago, was not likely to be lost on the Polish party leader, Stanislaw Kania, and his colleagues, they added. The diplomats said the end of Warsaw Pact manoeuvres did not mean the possibilities of intervention had vanished. The diplomats referred to a precedent in 1968 when Soviet, Hungarian, and East German forces ended manoeuvres 10. days before Warsaw pact forces swept into Czechoslovakia. The diplomats said the end of the military exercises meant intervention in Poland was not imminent, but nothing more. The end of the manoeuvres was announced a few hours after the Brezhnev speech. The manoeuvres, extended from a week to 22 days, were seen by United States officials as a means of pressing the Polish Government to rein in Solidarity and curb labour unrest in the country. ■ Some diplomats suggested Moscow may have decided to apply less overt pressure on the Warsaw Government. In the past few weeks, it has increasingly urged Polish leaders to take forceful action against the Solidarity free trade union and dissident groups. These diplomats said Moscow may have acknowledged that its call for a tough line could have influenced events in the town of Bydgoszcz on March 19, when alleged police violence against free trade unionists caused increased union unrest. In Washington United States officials are closely watching events in Poland despite an apparent easing of tensions there and reports that Soviet military activity in and around Poland re-

mains at an unusual level. The department's spokesman, William Dyess, said that Mr Brezhnev’s remarks did not give a clear picture of Moscow’s intentions and that the department was studying the Soviet leader’s speech carefully. “If he meant to say that the Poles should be allowed to solve their own problems without outside interference, we would welcome this,” Mr Dyess said. He said the Administration continued to be seriously concerned about the Polish situation and by what he called the threatening public posture taken by the Soviet Union and other Eastern European countries. Mr Brezhnev’s statements in Prague were echoed by the Polish chief delegate, Stefan Olszowski, who said the Polish party would find the strength and will power to lead the country out of its current crisis. “No-one will ever succeed in pushing Poland from the socialist road of development,” he said, to applause from the 1500 delegates and guests. Mr Brezhnev repeated an earlier proposal for a moratorium on the deployment or replacement of mediumrange nuclear missiles in Europe. He said the proposal was aimed at creating a more favourable atmosphere for disarmament talks. The Soviet leader said Moscow was ready for constructive talks at any level and accused the West of trying to impose preconditions. The American Defence Secretary (Mr Caspar Weinberger) has said there could be no disarmament talks if the Soviet Union intervened in Poland.