THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1, 1981. The shooting in Washington

Press, 1 April 1981, Page 24

THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, APRIL 1, 1981. The shooting in Washington

For the second time in less than three months the United States, and the world must adjust to having’ a new leader in control at the White Housed If early medical reports are confirmed President Reagan is likely to return to the full duties of President: for some time the VicePresident, Mr George Bush, will be in charge., •

Mr Bush, 12 years younger than the President, is an able administrator with wide experience in national and international affairs. Mr Bush was a contender for the. Republican Party's nomination in the election last year. Because of the new President's age it was always acknowledged that Mr Bush, as Vice-President, might be required to take over the Presidency; certainly he could be the Republicans’ presidential candidate in 1983.

Mr Bush’s sudden and early elevation, even if it is temporary, is still a shock. He is a more familiar figure than President Reagen in international affairs, and most would accept that he is more able in this part of the White House- job, On the international front, the change in leadership and the further upset in coming to an understanding of Mr Reagan’s Administration is not made easier because Mr Bush happens to be well qualified for the task.

Yesterday’s shooting of the President was an event that may change many courses in the streams of American politics, domestic as well as foreign relations. In office for less than three months, President Reagan had shown a dignity and a political acumen which confounded many of his detractors. The man and his policies may have suffered a telling interruption, but the place of his Administration is likely to be strengthened among'Americans because of sympathy for the President’s misfortune and because of continuing anxiety about the narrow margin of his survival of the assassination attempt. For some time attention will focu? not on policies, about which much argument can flourish, but on the man himself, who scored a substantial victory at the polls last November and was obviously a very popular choice.

The occasion need not be used to deplore the risk of violent death which some see as attaching to the office of President. In this century two Presidents. William McKinley in 1910 and John -Kennedy in 1963. have died by assassination; attempts have been made on the lives of others. Perhaps it is more remarkable that in a nation of more than 200 million people, in which violence is an lall-too-familiar way of settling disputes, and in which those holding high office are ' constantly exposed in public places, there jhave'not been more assassinations or i attempts on the lives of Presidents.

Americans who want much stricter control of firearms in their community can use the latest incident to reinforce their case, their point sharpened by the President’s known opposition to their views. Yet political murders and attempted murders elsewhere, even in countries such as Britain where small arms are strictly controlled, •suggest that those who are determined enough, or mad enough, to want to kill can usually find a way to make the attempt.

Others might argue that the risk of an event such as the shooting in Washington yesterday is; part of the price that must be paid in an open society where prominent political figures are expected to remain part of the community they serve and rule. Assassination attempts could be made much more difficult, but this would be at the price of the grim police State measures of most Communist countries in which rulers seem generally to be wholly cut off from the community.

It appears that the would-be assassin in Washington was crazy, and that he was acting alone. The world must hope that this can be confirmed quickly and beyond doubt. President Reagan himself has been an outspoken critic of the use of terrorist methods by groups encouraged by such Eastern Bloc countries as Cuba and the Soviet Union. Any hint of a connection between the man who tried to kill the President and -another country could have drastic and incalculable effects on America’s international relations.

After President Kennedy's death, theories of a conspiracy abounded. Seventeen years later some Americans still doubt that the President was shot by Lee Harvey Oswald, or that Oswald was acting alone. The ingredients for a conspiracy, whether of political Left or Right, might be found in the circumstances of the attempt on President Reagan. On the descriptions and film of the event seen so far there appears to be no reason to assume that anyone other than a single criminal lunatic was involved.

While President Reagan is recovering no important changes are likely in the policies he had begun. If anything, Congress and the American people are likely to be more sympathetic to his proposals. The country’s sense of patriotism is likely to be enhanced. The people left “minding the store” —• Mr Bush and the Secretary of State, Mr Haig — had already shown that they were not mere figureheads under the President. Without Mr Reagan’s tempering influence they may, however, differ more sharply on how best to improve America’s military and economic strength. . Although the Administration may continue to work effectively, only the President’s return to his desk can allay fully a sense of uncertainty in the United States as in the world at large.