Socred at new ‘plateau’?

Press, 25 February 1981, Page 3

Socred at new ‘plateau’?

By

MIKE HANNAH

Social Credit’s third place in the . latest “Star” Heylen poll may reflect a new high “plateau” of support, rather than • a dip in the league’s fortunes. According to the poll, -40 per cent of New Zealanders would vote for National. 33.2 per cent for Labour and 25.9 per cent for Social Credit. The poll was taken on February- 7. Social Credit took second place in two National Re-i search Bureau-“ New Zealand) Herald” polls taken in' De-1 cember and January. Both' polls gave National’3B perj cent,, Social Credit 31 per; cent, ’ and Labour 30 per cent. They Heylen poll appears to burst the Social Credit balloon, which has been flying high about.3l per cent since the East Coast Bays; in which the! league .gained its second! member of Parliament. Mr; G. T. Knapp. I But ...a glance at . Heylen! polls taken since 1972 shows! a link between elections and; polls, which would suggest' that Social Credit can now; rely on a new base of sup-1 port of 25 to 26 per cent. It also suggests that NewZealanders are as willing to “gamble” with their votes! on a third party at a Gen- : eral Election as they are in; political polls. The December and Janu-i ary polls gave Social Credit! an artificially high level of; support, according to a’ Christchurch political scien-j tist, Mr A. D. Mcßobie.! They contained a “band-; waggon”- effect caused by! the East Coast . Bays by-elec-j tion, and reflected the splits! in the National and Labour parties. But the polls conformed to a' trend thathad-been noticeable since 1972,, Mr Mcßobie

Early in 1972, Social Cred-; it’s support hit “rock hot-; tom” at 3 per cent. In the 1972 General Election, it! rose to 6.6 per cent, where; it stayed until the 1975 Gen-| eral Election, in which it in-; creased slightly to 7.4 per! cent. Support remained 'static; between 7 and 8 per cent; until the Rangitikei by-elec-i tion in 1978, when polls; started to.give Social Credit; 13 per cent. This rose to; 16.1 per cent in the 19781 General Election 10 months! later. Polls since 1978 had given; Social Credit a steady 19. per; cent, until the East Coast! Bays by-election. Mr! Mcßobie sees the latest poll! as setting the new “plateau”! of support about 25 perj cent. ; Far from slumping;, inGeneral Elections, Social i, Credit’s support has tended; to rise as unrelentingly a’s in by-elections and polls. The; only exceptions appear td be; the Onehunga and Northern! Maori by-elections in 1980, i in which Social Credit hasblamed its own complacency; for its poor showing. The Hevlen poll was taken after Mr Maclntyre had been elected deputy leader of the. National Party, but before Mr D. R. Lange resolved his position as deputy leader ot the Labour Party. This may be reflected in; the leadership poll taken by! Hevlen. Mr Muldoon retain-' ed’the highest personal vote,! 32.5 per cent preferring him; as Prime Minister, compared; with 28.4 per cent in December and 32.6 per cent in No-j vember. The Social Credit leader; (Mr Beetham) took second! place with 14.5 per cent; (15.7 per cent in December! and 15.6 per cent in Novem-j ber),'. ahead of the Leader of; the Opposition (Mr Row-; ling), who polled 11.5 per'

cent (12.7 per cent in December, 13.3 per cent in November). Mr Lange was next with 9.1 per cent, continuing a slump from his June 1980 peak of 15.1 per cent. The former deputy leader of the National Party, Mr Talboys, was next, with 3.7 per cent, a drop from 6.4 per cent in December. Mr Maclntyre showed the biggest increase in support, however. He polled only 1 per cent, but this was a significant increase above his 0.2 per cent poll in November, and his 1979 aver-j age poll of 0.6 per cent. Mr Mcßobie felt that Mr Maclntyre’s showing reflected an acceptance of the new deputy leader in some circles and a willingness to forget his involvement in the Fitzgerald Land Loans' affair of last year. I Two new names appeared! in the Heylen poll: the Min-I ister of Housing (Mr Quig-I ley) polled '1.5 per cent, and! the Minister of Labour (Mr' Bolger) polled 1 per cent.i Both were contenders for; the Government's deputy! leadership post. The member of Parliament' for Hamilton West (Mr M. J. Minogue) retained 1.5 per cent support. The poll was the result of a survey of 1000 people aged 15 and over, and includes a margin of error of 3 per cent. Although the N.R.B. poll covers 2000 people, Mr Mcßobie said that both polls had the same relative margin of error. Undecided voters have increased in the Heylen poll from 8.2 per cent to 10.5 per cent, while 12.6 per cent were undecided about their best leader. Voters were still concerned most about unemployment, with 42.1 per cent naming it as the biggest problem facing the country.