THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1980. No easy course for 1981

Press, 31 December 1980, Page 12

THE PRESS WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 31, 1980. No easy course for 1981

Unemployment, inflation, and the shortage of foreign exchange — the trio of demons has seemed to determine New Zealand’s fate in 1980. The same trio will be with us for at least another year, and no-one has yet come up with a formula to exorcise any of them, let alone all three. By what seems an extra twist of malevolence, measures designed to reduce the influence of one of the evils have generally the result of increasing the effect of the others. Thus, the latest round of economic measures and tax concessions being offered by the Government may ease unemployment a little, but are likely to do so at the price of continuing inflation and a continuing shortage of foreign exchange. The problems of managing the country’s economy have become too complicated to be reduced easily to the satisfying slogans or simple solutions on which politics and politicians thrive. Perhaps no-one can appreciate all the complexities of the country’s condition. No-one knows for sure what to do next and no-one can be sure what the effects — intended or unintended — of any action will be. Small wonder is it that the community is showing dissatisfaction with both the major political parties and their avowed policies. Small wonder that within those parties the members are dissatisfied with their leaders, yet remain uncertain and confused about who might do the jobs better. For those who treat politics as a spectator -sport, this uncertainty has made 1980 a memorable year in New Zealand, notable for an apparent surge of support for a third party, Social Credit, and challenges to the positions of Mr Muldoon and Mr Rowling, as well as a continuing indecision about who should be Mr Muldoon’s deputy. Nineteen eighty-one is likely to be even more interesting because of the General Election. Not for a long time has there been so much uncertainty about how the voters will line up when their opportunity comes. The election is less than a year away and a good many more people than usual do not know how they will vote. However exciting the political game may appear, the spectacle is in itself doing little to solve the country’s problems. Attention is being distracted from the vital economic issues. When political leaders seem uncertain what to do next, or when some things that they do to correct problems do not bring immediate benefits, many people are ready to condemn almost anything politicians do or propose. So the collapse of a major industry, such as Mosgiel, brings anguish and criticism. The proposal to introduce a major industry, such as the second aluminium smelter, evokes determined opposition. Much energy is devoted by almost everyone, especially by trade unions, to pursuing larger shares of the national cake.-. Much less attention is given to the equally important matter

of how to make that cake bigger. New Zealand presents the curious picture of a community in which, by the standards of much of the world, it is almost impossible to be really poor. Vet a mood of widespread dissatisfaction prevails, not least because the financial comfort of many people has come to depend on the taxes paid by others. The changes in the commercial world have sometimes been provoked or encouraged by the Government. They would probably have taken place in any event and perhaps more painfully if left to unattended forces. A merger such as that of Challenge Corporation, Fletchers, and Tasman, which will be complete early in the new year, changes the face of New Zealand business. Smaller mergers, among retailers, service, and manufacturing industries are going on all the time, each grouping trying to gain a new fitness and strength in testing times, that expose weaknesses concealed in the past by general prosperity. Even amid the obvious prosperity of the Christmas season of 1980 it is difficult not to feel some disquiet about ■the year ahead. When there is uncertainty about the exact causes of the country’s ills, there is uncertainty and caution about remedies. When sensible and practicable policies seem slow to work crankv and sweeping alternatives gain a false appeal. When economic problems seem to defy simple definition. let alone an easy solution, the community’s attention can easily turn to more peripheral matters that seem to admit of a straightforward choice. Every scheme that means change attracts its critics, but controversy is probably more bearable than unplanned, enforced change. Enterprises such as “the multinationals” are epamined in an attempt to find targets or explanations for dissatisfaction. Issues such as the Springbok tour debate provide something close to relief from the intricacies of economic management. The community’s future will be ill-served however, if such things as political phantoms, or football, are allowed to be decisive in settling who the country’s leaders are to be by the end of the year. In spite of the awesome problems posed by unemployment, inflation, and the foreign exchange shortage the country still has sufficient wealth, and time, to maintain a sense of progress. What seems to be widely lacking is a sense of energy and purpose, founded on a solid base of common sense and an awareness of what is practicable. Hopeful generalisations will serve no good purpose. Only close attention to detail and an awareness of how to balance conflicting interests will produce any hope of a prosperous 1981 and better times in later years. Over-specialised experts, self-interested grizzling, and intolerance of the needs and goals of others will do nothing to produce more congenial times or greater productivity on which social welfare depends.