Dictators heartened by Reagan victory

Press, 22 November 1980, Page 14

Dictators heartened by Reagan victory

By

HUGH O’SHAUGHNESSY

"If you look at old Reagan films you’ll see he was always being shot at by Mexicans with big moustaches and enormous hats. It could be a clue to the future.” joked a distinguished Latin American. Nowhere in the world was the CarterReagan duel followed with more' interest than in Latin America, much of which, like it or hot, is still Uncle Sam’s backyard- Few regions have a greater potential for causing the next President, trouble.

The first reaction to the Republican victory came from the Right-wing regimes whose jailers and torturers had to adopt a low profile during the unpredictable but often tempestuous winds of Mr. Carter’s human rights policy.

sternation. The radical Sand-, inista Government in Nicaragua, still trying to consolidate itself after a little more than-’a.-year in office, has said- ■ archly that a small thing.dike, the-U.S. election s will: not change the relation: . ship ’ between ~ Washington ■ and Managua. But underneath is the fear that Mr Reagan -will decide to send troops to Central'America to 1 prop up the Salvadorean ‘ junta and -still, the winds of change in the -area. - In Havana, Moscow’s exposed bridg' head in the Western Hemisphere, President Castro has every excuse to feel jittery about the President-elect. In the past few months he has made it clear, that' he regards the Castro Government almost as- a\ hostage in U.S. hands against which severe action will be taken if the Soviets do hot evacuate ' fghanistan. Mr Reagan has talked openly of a new naval • blockade against the islandThough the Government-' controlled. - -riewspapere in' Havana continue to this day. to write "Nikon” with? a swastika in place of ’he X, and to pour scorn on President Carter's, decision to-; give entry to the tens of thousands of dissidents who

fled the island this/year, it could be that the Castro Government w’ill look back to the days of Nixon and Carter with nostalgia as they enter the Reagan era. The question for Latin America must be whether the new President will live up to the aggressively Right-wing statements he has made on Latin America. If he does, 'the effect in much of Latin America will be explosive, particularly in Central America and the Caribbean where, despite the recent victory of the Right in the Jamaican elections, there is great restiveness. Only in Brazil, the giant of . South America, does there - seem to be genuine lack of interest about the new U.S. President. Over the past decade Brazil has borrowed so much money from

in London

Western banks, well over §5O billion, that the U.S. and Europe have no alternative but to continue to shore up the Brazilian economy. If they do not, the financial consequences to some of the biggest banks in the West could be catastrophic. The Brazilian military know that, come Carter, come Reagan, Washington .will have to keep in with Brazil. The other day, just before the election, General Figueiredo, the Brazilian President was asked whether he was for Reagan or Carter. "I’m for Fluminense,” he re-> plied. Fluminense, one of the top teams in football-mad Rio de Janeiro, was more important to most Brazilians than who was to be the next man in the Oval Office.—Copyright, London Observer Service.

As soon as Mr Reagan emerged as a possible Presi-, dent more than a year ago. Latin America’s Right-wing extremists, from Argentina, Chile and Paraguay right up to Central America,-crossed their ■ "ngers and began praying for him nightly. Since the election, expressions of relief have been audible from the Videla regime in Buenos Aires, from the drug-runn?rs and generals, who rule Bolivia, from the.-' Guatemalan . military, struggling’ against .increasing domestic unrest, and from the embattled junta' in,bloodsoaked El .Salvador. , . The 1 .common:theme is one of rejoicing that the Carter era is past and hope that Mr Reagan will be more understanding of the sad necessity of using every method, clean or dirty, to eradicate challenges to the present establishments. • ■ r In -the . Left-wing camp there is little hiding the con-