Problem after vital caucus

Press, 22 October 1980, Page 1

Problem after vital caucus

PHILIP WORTHINGTON

Adroit manoeuvrings by the Prime Minister (Mr Muldoon) appear to have outflanked opponents to his leadership from within his own caucus, but the manner in which he sought to secure his position might have left him with a more difficult problem.

In a dramatic and unprecedented move, Mr Muldoon made the challenge to his leadership public property after last week’s indecisive caucus meeting.

By doing so he asserted himself at the centre of the stage and put pressure on the caucus to make up its mind. Notable among his actions since then has been lack of interest in lobbying among his colleagues to persuade them to Hs point M view.

Instead, Mr Muldoon went over the heads of his Parliamentary party, over the 1 .nds of the party organisation, and turned to the party’s grass roots to confirm him in the eyes of such caucus members as might be wavering. As a tesult, he turned the leadership question into a popularity poll and polarised support to him from among the public at large. The caucus had what was probably its best chance last Thursday if its members were determined to depose Mr Muldoon. On that occasion it failed to show the required determination', the concerted will to change its leader.

Now Mr Muldoon is armed with a grass-roots reaction which was probably underestimated by his opponents and he con-

fidently declares the challenge is over. Waverers in the caucus have come to his support and those whose commitment he did not know have declared themselves to be with him, or so he says.

Reservations about Mr Muldoon’s style of leadership and criticism of his abrasive..ess have been voiced in caucus meetings before, and the question of leadership was just one of several issues and possible failings of the party with which ;iie caucus dealt last Thursday. Mr Muldoon pointedly and publicly made it the central issue. He turned to the news media in, a way which he knew would force a decision, which he is confident will favour him.

This populist ploy might have made certain his sur-

vival, but it has also left him with the insurmountable task of trying to restore a public image of party inity. Among Mr Muldoon’s colleagues were some that decided a change would be desirable, and who capitalised on the general disquiet in the party resulting from the defeat in the East Coast Bays by-elec-tion. They gained support from many back-benchers anl apparently from some of his Cabinet Ministers who, if not convinced of the need for a change of leader, were convinced that a change in his style was desirable if the party is to win next year’s General Election.

The publicity which Mr Muldoon has given this disharmony will shadow his win in the caucus over those who would rather

see him out. The caucus, with Mr Muldoon’s help, has shown itself to be fundamentally divided. In the past such publicity has been avoided, the caucus tenet of secrecy observed, precisely so that the pa' ty can offer a united front to the public. To this, extent the “team” image has been shattered. From the pieces Mr Muldoon will have to try to put together a picture of the Parliamentary wing of the party which, in the public eyes, shows cohesion and some profit from the soul-searching which has gone on within its ranks.

'Once again, the possibility of a Cabinet reshuffle over the Christmas recess looms large. Mr Muldoon said previously that he saw no reason not to continue with hispresent Cabinet until the next election. The , events since his Return from Mexico might force- a ■ char _ of plan. f .

Mr Muldoon has been guarded; on what will happen to 1 the “dissidents” -fter 'tfye leadership issue is resolved. It is not, he says, a/question of how he Will deal with them, but how they will deal with him.

Cabinet Ministers who have been prepared to, tell the caucus that they are unhappy with Mr Muldoon’s leadership — and, according to Mr Muldoon, they are “a very, very small group” — might find continued service in the Cabinet untenable.

But' reven this poses a probleni for Mr Muldoon and for the party. Too many or too wide-sweep-ing changes in the Cabinet would be seen bythe pub-

lie (irrespective of whether such a view was warranted)! as an admission/; that opposition to the 1 - leader was deep-seated and Mr Muldoon’s survival was marginal. y To do nothing at all would be seenas a whiter, wash, and confirm in the public mind an often-held but generally unvoiced opinion that politicians are a hypocritical lot any-' way. Further, it would

raise doubts that the issuri had been settled. The suggestion might be that if. was still festering, ready ! to erupt again the next time Mr Muldoon was... overseas for ari extended' j period. ’ Probably more import- ' ant than Mr Muldoon’s role in this restoration of the image of unity will be the role of his deputy and heir-apparent (Mr Talboys). Mr Talboys has said that he opposes, a change at this time + that he supports Mr Muldoon; a restatement or

this attitude will be critical on his return to New Zealand. Mr Talboys has an obvious backing in the caucus, both from those who want to place him m Mr Muldoon’s stead and from' those who would support him as leader if Mr Muldoon goes. While he stands by his selfstated role as Mr Muldoon’s “right hand,” Mr Muldoon has little to fear from a caucus coup, and it

.will be on Mr Talboys’s •i shoulders that much of •i the work of reconstruction ’ will fall. ’ All of the soul-searching , now going on in the '■ caucus has been prompted by the spectre of defeat next’-year at the polls. East Coast Bays has brought home forcibly the warnings of the party

president, (Mr Gt A. Chap- ■ man), arid it is disquiet over, election chances that has4’fpi-ced - Government members into such a frank review of >’ their policies, image,:, and public standing: , / Policy reviews will continue in the caucus, in se’.cret. The image-building /will have to be done ■ very

publicly to lay to rest the view of a riven caucus that has been paraded so openly in the last week. The thorny question of what to do with Mr Muldoon if he is deposed might well have receded, the problems of finding a new deputy , might have faded, but the caucus is in the spotlight as never before. Because of Mr Muldoon’s gambit, National’s 'future at. the next election might depend less on the party’s leader than on how well the Parliamentary team can prove to the public that it can undergo dissension and threats to unity yet quickly pick up the threads of cohesion and 'function as a Government unimpaired.