Oil output likely to be static —U.S. report
NZPA-Reuter Washington Wo[ld oil production is not likely to increase this century and may decline by as much as half in Western industrialised countries, according to a Congressional report. “It is highly likely that there will be little or no increase in world production of oil from conventional sources,” the Office of Technology Assessment, an advisory agency to Congress, said. ' World oil production could be increased by up to 33 per cent by 1990, but the eventual figure would probablv be lower.
"Nations capable of contributing to such an increase have no financial or political incentive to do so and a number of practical prob-1
lems would arise.” the office said.
Assuming political stability in the main exporters, world supply was likely to range between 45 and 60 million barrels a day in 1985 and between 40 and 60 million a day in 2000. it said. Last year world oil supply averaged 52 million barrels a day. The study estimated that United States' production might decline from the present! 10.2 million barrels a day to between 7.2 and 8.5 million in 1985 and between four and seven million in 2000.
“As a group, the nopCommuriist industrialised countries will experience no significant increase ’a production; In fact, production in these countries may decrease; by as much as 50 per
icent by the year 2000,” the; renort said.
Production by members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting . Countries during the next 20 years would not differ much from its present level of 31 million barrels a day. "Any increases in the production rate will be strongly dependent upon Arab O.P.E.C producers.” it said.
Production in • non0.P.E.C.,. less developed countries would increase, mainly in Mexico, but much, if not all, of that increase would .be offset by increases in those countries’ consumption. Communist countries might cease to be net exporters of oil to the free world by the early 1980 s as a result of declines in Soviet production, the report said,
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Press, 21 October 1980, Page 8
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337Oil output likely to be static —U.S. report Press, 21 October 1980, Page 8
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