Egyptians welcome stalemate

Press, 21 October 1980, Page 21

Egyptians welcome stalemate

By

SHYAM BHATIA,

“Observer,” London

“Let them bleed and bleed each other,” said a senior Egyptian official, referring to the Iraqi-Ira-nian war that is now grinding into a stalemate. There is little to choose from between the two sides, as far as Egypt is concerned, since both Iraq and Iran are seen as enemy states. President Sadat and Ayatollah Khomeiny have been trading insults ever

since the beginning of the Iranian revolution. Relations between the two leaders deteriorated still further when Sadat decided to give the late Shah asylum in Egypt during the last six months of his life. Also relations between Egypt and Iraq have been scarcely any better since Iraq leads the rejectionist Arab group opposed to the Camp David agreement. Camp David apart, Egypt and Iraq are traditional rivals for the leadership of the Arab world and any weakening of Iraqis would accordingly be seen as a plus for Cairo. To the Egyptians’ satisfaction, however, the war has divided the rejectionists. Algeria and. Syria support Iran, while Libya, South Yemen, and the Palestinian Liberation Organisation have either supported Iraq or taken a neutral position. In many ways the Gulf war could not have come at a more appropriate time for Sadat, although there are dangers for Egypt if it continues too long. Egypt is facing severe economic problems, including an annual inflation rate of more than 40 per cent, and the war has performed the useful function of diverting the public’s attention from such issues as the price of cooking oil and sugar.

Externally, It has lent a certain credence to Sadat’s thesis that Egypt is an oasis of stability in a troubled region. The Foreign Office in Cairo believes that Egypt’s importance in the eyes of the West can be enhanced only in the long term, but in the short term the country’s policy planners are faced with some difficult decisions. President Sadat has

repeatedly promised that Egypt will defend any Arab State under attack. It is a claim that has been mocked in the past by his critics who point to Egypt’s impotence, for example, in defending Lebanon from repeated Israeli raids.

In the Gulf, on the other hand, Sadat has a chance to redeem his promise. After Iran’s threat to attack any Gulf State that helps Iraq, for example by offering harbour facilities to its ships, the tiny Arab sheikhdoms are in a vulnerable position.

Egyptian officials believe that Gulf countries such as the United Arab Emirates, and even Kuwait, would welcome an offer of protection from Egypt, perhaps even in preference to help from a‘ super-power such as the United States.

The dangers thereafter of Egypt being drawn into a regional conflict would be a bitter pill for the Egyptian public to swallow. After being promised the fruits of peace and a new era of stability, Egyptians would not easily forgive their leader for being lured into yet another war.

Sadat must walk the tight-rope of deciding between domestic hopes and foreign policy needs. Copyright, London Observer Service.