Japan’s senior citizens pose a problem

Press, 20 September 1980, Page 14

Japan’s senior citizens pose a problem

MARK MURRAY

in Tokyo

Only a decade ago, Japan had one of the youngest populations in the developed world; by the end of the century, it will have one of the oldest. The economic and social challenges which this transformation poses are reckoned by many experts to be a far more - serious threat to Japan than any oil cartel, heavy dependence on raw materials, or world recession. Questions, are being raised about Japan’s ability to cope with health care, lifetime employment and adequate supplies of workers to the labourintensive industries that still affect national growth. Apart from two brief “baby, booms” immediately after the war and between 1971 and 1974, Japan’s birthrate has been in steady decline. After peaking at 1,510.000 births in 1973, it has dropped below the million mark. In 1979, the percentage of children in the population was a post-war low of 23.6. The death rate is also declining as Japanese are now living longer than most people. Within 10 years, experts believe, 15 per cent of the population will be over 65.

A young population was the key to Japan’s post-war “economic miracle.” The products of the first baby

boom mainly left school after finishing compulsory education at 15. They kept down wage costs and their willingness to move around the country helped Japanese industry develop in the most suitable and efficient sites. All that is changing at frightening speed. The youth of that era is now moving into middle age, and gaps are appearing at the bottom, (Apart from a declining birthrate, the majority of youngsters now go to university or technical college and join the work force, at high pay, in their twenties.)

Major enterprises, needing to maintain international competitiveness with increased capital investment, are finding instead that an ageing proportion is siphoning off a growing proportion of the cash. Social welfare, after all, is still largely a private rather than public responsibility. Two casualties have been the nation’s cherished pillars of post-war industrial peace: annual wage rises based on seniority rather than merit, and the lifetime employment guarantees.

Faced with the high cost of maintaining the two ideals, recession-hit industries have been looking for ways out. Last year, for example, some companies were able to per-

suade thousands of redundant workers to accept a ‘“golden handshake” and retire early. The mandatory retirement age has long been set at 55, which was realistic half-a-century ago when the average lifespan was 53, but is no longer practical in the midseventies.

Lucky retirees have been able to launch a second career until a government pension at 65. But, for various reasons, this is not available for an estimated onethird of the work force today. The system, in fact, is still linked’ to the old idea that the elderly are primarily the responsibility of their children.

Government and unions are now in agreement that the retirement age should be raised, and tentative moves have begun in some industries towards a new line around 58 to 60. In some labourintensive industries, where the declining birthrate is hurting recruitment, this might be welcome. But the companies concerned are beginning to stress the idea that wage increases beyond, say the mid-40s, will have to be earned and will not be an automatic right. Even with this, the increasing wage and social welfare burden of an ageing population is seen as a major negative factor for Japanese industry in the future.

Mr Daisaku Maeda, of the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Gerontology, corhments: “The increase of the aged population lays a heavy burden on any society. In the case of Japan, the rapid increase in older people raises particularly acute problems.” Because public pension programmes have not yet matured, the number of old people who can live economically independent lives is very ’ small compared to the West, he says. Children are still expected to look after their retired parents. But these days many do not have the economic resources, the room in cramped urban homes, or even the desire. to fulfil their obligations. Industrialisation and urbanisation have split up millions of families.

Mr Maeda admits that the Government has been slow to realise the changing pattern, partly because no one in Japan has any experience in dealing with the care of the elderly outside the family circle. There are virtually no “old people’s homes” and the few that exist have long waiting lists, so that many completely bedridden elderly have to wait years for admission. ’ There is also no volunteer service offering, for example, a home-visiting programme. — Copyright, London Observer Service.