Things may not have been what they seemed

Press, 5 September 1980, Page 14

Things may not have been what they seemed

It seems that in. the 1970 s when it was frequently claimed that animal numbers were

largely static they could : have, in fact, been increase ing. on land farmed because of the effects of the loss of farmland from pastoral farming. Speaking to a land use seminar at Lincoln College this week Dr G, W- Butler, Assistant Director General of the Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, asked to What extent the apparent plateau in stock numbers reached in the last decade could be attributed to diversification, of land use ■ away from pastoral farming. He said that Mr N. W. Taylor, director of the Meat'and Wool-? Boards’ Service, .from an analysis of data from 1967 to 1977, suggested,: that there had actually, been an . increase in ■ stocking of 12 .per pent during .? tms .period, and-that diversion of land to other land uses had reduced potential total stock units by 9M. Using the statistical • inf onhation: ini department’s: paper, - “Land .Alone - Endures;’’' a similar ’ conclusion could ; be ; drawn, said ■ Dr ‘Butler. The ; net potential loss.- in /stock .units over -the. seven-year .period from 1970 to 1977 wps 5.6 M. Thus, based on the D.S.I.R. figures, stocking might have increased by 8 to 9. per/ cejit in •seven : years ■ compared with Taylor’s estimate of 42 per cent ih-lO years.■Moran, • -of Auckland -.University,: ’ • .tihad .v also analysed livestock changes

; between 1967 and . 1976 to look at regional differ-, ences in stocking, He had found that stock units per area of farmed land had increased by up to 10 per cent in the hili country and lowlands of the North Island east of the main, di- • vide and on part of the volcanic plateau, but m western parts of the North Island and north of the axial ranges decreases were general amounting to more than 10 per cent m some areas. In the South, island increases of 10 per 1 cent were . recorded for substantial areas, with only Westland and the northern parts of NelsonMarlborough showing small decreases. In any ease. Dr Butler said that the Current. Agricultural Situation Report recorded that stock units had increased by 3.7 per cent from June, 1976, to June, 1980, and forecast that the expansion would ■ continue over the next five years to give a total ;• of 109 M to 110 M by June, 1985, representing a 10 per cent increase in stock units in less than 10 years. ' . . - The livestock incentive scheme and the land : development encouragement loan scheme were playing a considerable part in bringing' this expansion about: The latter scheme was at present funding the development of an additional 600,000 hectares, which when fully productive should yield SIBOM annually in export receipts at today’s prices,