THE PRESS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 1980. Rhodesian election pessimism

Press, 28 February 1980, Page 18

THE PRESS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 2, 1980. Rhodesian election pessimism

The imponderable aspects of the Rhodesian election and possible events afterwards provide plenty of opportunity for those who would settle for gloom in Rhodesia and. throughout southern Africa. Even some. of. the violence which' has occurred during the election campaign adds to the evidence supporting the gloomy ' view. Yet certain advances have been made.

Many of. the guerrillas have come out of the bush and have assembled at the cease-fire points. Some have stayed away, possibly out of suspicion, perhaps by the tactical design of their leaders, Mr Robert Mugabe and Mr Joshua Nkomo, who are expected to take most votes in the election. As military commanders as well as politicians, both men would not want to see their forces concentrated where they could be open to attack: .

Although there have been assassination attempts and some intimidation has been practised, the whole election process has not broken down and the election is going to be held in all districts. The “front-line” States have been as good as their word and have helped to control the guerrillas. On the eve of the election, Mr Mugabe, not believing for a moment that he will lose, has said that he would accept defeat if the impossible happened. Guerrilla forces have undertaken training as regular soldiers for postelection duties. All these points are in favour of a peaceful and workable outcome.

Those who have fought for many years are not easily persuaded that the way to power is not through the barrel of a gun, yet a glimmer of hope exists that a peaceful Rhodesia will emerge. It would be unrealistic to believe that this will happen without some violent incidents, just as there have been violent incidents. throughout the election campaign. To some extent the future depends on whether Mr Mugabe is as good as his word. Since he returned to Rhodesia he has been making remarkably conciliatory statements. Those who are more suspicious regard these statements as a veil over a standard, hard-lined Marxist approach; but Mr Mugabe would not be the first radical who, tasting real political power, began to take a more measured approach to solving the difficulties of his country.

Several dangers persist. The first is the threat of a coup by those whites who, according to some accounts at least, cannot conceive of a Rhodesia

in which they are not dominant. A' second danger comes from intervention by South Africa, already hinted at by that country. The third danger has its origins in the Parliamentary process itself. If Mr Mugabe’s' party wins most votes and more seats than any of the other parties, what will happen if a coalition is formed among his opponents and it keeps his party out of effective power? Would that be the kind of “impossible” defeat that Mr Mugabe has undertaken to accept? A problem lies in the fact that, even if he accepted it himself, his followers might see that, having played the game, more or less, they were being deprived by devious means of the power that should be theirs.

The niceties of coalition governments are accepted in many developed democracies; the impression such an arrangement might produce among black peoples in Rhodesia would be different. In Britain the Prime Minister, Mrs Thatcher, has been faced with calls to insist that Lord Soames, the British Governor in Rhodesia, ask the leader of the party which wins the most seats to form the Government; but she is leaving it all up to Lord Soames..

How Lord Soames would handle it is difficult to say. He has had a difficult task in bringing the election to fruition. One of the troubles is that he has left himself open to charges of having favoured Bishop Muzorewa, who served as Prime Minister after Mr lan Smith stepped down and before Lord Soames took temporary charge.

Bishop Muzorewa is regarded as a moderate but has run an unimpressive campaign, apparently believing that to heap abuse on the heads of his opponents would carry the day. His private army has been included in the Rhodesian Forces and, although much of the violence in the campaign has been attributed by Lord Soames to Mr Mugabe’s forces, other observers have found that the forces which were once directed by the Bishop are feared by many people. The days after the voting has been announced will be crucial. The presence of the monitoring forces may help to bring stability. It was a sound decision for the countries concerned, including New Zealand, to leave the forces there for a few more days. Few who have watched the events will regard the next fews days without apprehension: but it. would be too pessimistic at this stage to anticipate them with downright despair.