2001: majority will live outside city’s limits

Press, 28 February 1980, Page 6

2001: majority will live outside city’s limits

Waimairi County or Paparua County will be the places to live in Christchurch by the turn of the century. These areas will become the overwhelming choices for new Christchurch residents if the latest population predictions of' the Statistics Department prove correct.

The department has made three possible predictions for the year 2001: low, medium, and high. The projections are based on mortality, fertility, and migration figures over the last four periods covered by the national census, beginning 1956-61. The medium variant represents the expected growth according to earlier patterns; the lows and highs are based on previous and expected fluctuations.

At the 1976 census, Christchurch City had a population of 172,000, By the year 2001, taking the medium prediction, she will increase by 6800 people, a rise of 4 per cent. Over the same period, Waimairi County is expected to grow by almost 27,000 at an increase rate of slightly under 40 per cent.

If the forecasts are accurate, Waimairi will have a population of more than 95,000 or, at most, 102,000. This would place it, if Waimairi was deemed a city, behind only Manukau, Christchurch City, Wellington, Hamilton, and Auckland in New Zealand on population size as projected

earlier this month by the Statistics Department. Paparua County should also experience a rapid growth. It is predicted that its population will, from the 1976 base, grow by almost 45 per cent. Effectively, this will mean 14,000 new" residents in the county. Of the other counties and boroiighs in the greater Christchurch area, only Riccarton and Lyttelton can expect to lose people. Riccarton Borough will probably lose up to a 1000 people, Lyttelton a little over 500.

The over-all pattern reflects a marked shift from the inner city and a considerable number will move into the country. Keeping to the medium variant, Rangiora Borough is expected to increase from 6000 people to 9000. At the same time, the Rangiora district will increase from under 5000 to 8500.

Kaiapoi’s population should grow by almost 50 per cent, the Sockburn District Community’s by more than 40 per cent. Mount Herbert County’s by slightly under 40 per cent, and Heathcote County’s by a little more than 30 per cent. The Hornby District Community should increase by more than 25 per cent. In 1976, just over 45 per cent of the greater Christchurch population lived outside Christchurch City. By 2001, the statistics predict, about 55 per cent of the total population will live outside the central jurisdiction.