Iraq ‘preparing to ditch Kremlin’

Press, 21 February 1980, Page 16

Iraq ‘preparing to ditch Kremlin’

By

PATRICK SEALE

iii Bagdad

. The Iraq Government is said to be considering renouncing its eight-year-old Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation with the Soviet Union. If the report circulat-; ing in Bagdad proves true, this would be a major blow to Soviet influence in the Middle East. For several months now Iraqi-Soviet relations have been under strain.. The most serious point at issue was the Iraqi belief that the Soviet Union and its communist allies were helping the powerful Iraqi Communist Party to plot against the Ba’th Government of President Saddam Hussain. Internally Saddam made short work of his communist adversaries, hanged party members accused of forming illegal army cells, drove, the party underground and suppressed its newspaper. .Externally the bloody conflict spread to foreign capitals, with Iraqi Ba’thi killing Iraqi communist and vice versa in Aden and Sophia. : Relations have been further envenomed by the hostile sniping at the Bagdad regime from communist radio stations round the world. , . So far the quarrel has been kept under control ~apd a surface’ cordiality tained, because of shared opposition to the ’ United States, to President Sadat and to his peace treaty with Israel. But the Afghan crisis has sharply heightened Iraqi suspicions of Moscow’s regional intentions. Given the brutal use made by the Soviets of their friendship treaty with Kabul, the Iraqis, have .come to view their ;own-.yfriend-ship-treaty more’ as a source of concern than of reassurance. Is an Iraqi Babrak Karmal being groomed somewhere in Eastern Europe? ...... ’ . Iraq is living in an .exposed arid ever more dan-

gerdus environment, only a frontier away from the grave international crisis unfolding in Iran. With Iran in turmoil, Iraq is now the strongest power in the Gulf, with oil revenues running at the rate of $25, billion a year, a population of 13 million, a wellequipped army of some 220,000, men, and a society which is disciplined, industrious, and increasingly skilled. But the. Iraqi fear is that the Iranian and Afghan, crises are building up to a super Power confrontation and subsequent carve up of the region. In such a situation Iraq would inevitably be swamped. Hence its' passionate championship of ;non?alignment, and its equal opposition both to Soviet incursion and to America’s/ current search for Middle East military facilities. With its own fate at stake, Iraq is watching the . evolution of the Iranian drama with great anxiety. If Avatollah Khomeiny’s Sh’ite Islamic republic consolidates itself, it is bound,, in the .Iraqi view, to; covet ‘ southern Iraq, home of .the 'country’s - ;large .Shi’a ’popu- v. lation and of. the Shi’a .holy cities of Najaf and Kerbela, /where Ayatollah Khomeiny.:? lived and acquired const# enable influence during - his 15-year exile.i . S','- L . In an attempt to destroy this influence, Iraqi propa-/ ganda constantly blackens > Ayatollah Khomeiny’s name. Thus Iraq is the only Arab country apart from Egypt to denounce the Ayatollah as a false Muslim and a menace... to the area. . ;' . .... , . ■ ” If. on the other hand, the communists in Iran come out on top, the danger, to Iraq will be no less. They have many ' accounts .to settle with the Ba’th. Worst of all would be an alliance of communists and

Shi’as radicals in effective control of Iran. Such an alliance already exists, and tirelessly attacks Iraq in Arabic-language broadcasts, , in leaflet campaigns, even in graffiti on western - streets. To counter its campaign, Iraq has taken the offensive ..into Iran, lending aid to the Arabic-speaking minority of Khuzistan jn the south-west, to the Iranian Kurds in the north, as well as to the Azerbaijanis and Baluchis, Encouraging ethnic and sectarian autonomists in Iran is-,. Iraq’s best defence against its revolutionary neighbour. The confrontation between Iran, and Iraq is a confrontation between the two most active forces in the Middle East today. Each presents a model of society in competition for the hearts and minds of the area. In contrast to-the Iranian model of society, -. Iraq’s ‘ model is secular,-; socially progressive, arid in favour of Western technology and civilisation although it robustly rejects : any ..hint of Western dominance. ; Fuelled by oil wealth, Saddam Hussain’s Iraq is . , doing as good, a job as any . developing country.K anywhere.- It can ;b'oast of full employment, high- wages, a burgeoning industrial? base, lavish Ttyelfare. 'service?, and.v an impressive ,investment in education, among other achievements: ;■ It is the ambition of Saddam Hussain to export this model, of society to other Arab countries", by demon-.,; strating its superiority over Khomeiny’s Islamic Repub- , lie, over . the '■ Islamic conservatism of the Saudi royal house ? and also over Libya’s eccentric Islamic populism. For an absolutist leader, Saddam is well equipped. Forged in the hard school of clandestinity, he. is ruthless, very hardworking, intelligent, ascetic, not naturally jovial but deliberately accessible to the common people. Anyone with a complaint is encouraged to ring him up. . ...-- ...... • . ' Since his accession last July (after 11 years of being the real power, in tile ruling party he fashioned),-.a cult., of the personality of the Leader-President, as he is called, has developed. ■ No opposition to him : is tolerated and rivals are got ria of with traditional Iraqi dis- - patch. . - But-for all his despotism, Saddam is well liked in Iraq. >-In the anxious times ahead, .. most, of his-fellow citizens, . the communists always ex- : ’cbpted, are glad to have so decisive a man-at. the top. ’ Copyright — London Observer Service.