Manukau likely to overtake Chch

Press, 16 February 1980, Page 5

Manukau likely to overtake Chch

Christchurch will no longer be New Zealand’s largest citv by the turn of the century. If the latest population predictions of the Statisics Department are near the mark, Manukau will be bigger by as many as 100,000 people. At the 1976 census, Christchurch City had a population of 172,000 and from 1971 had shown a 3.8 per cent rate of net increase.

This represented a population gain of a little over 6000. By the year 2001, the statistics say, Christchurch numbers could rise a little more than 10 per cent; they could equally drop as much as 3 per cent. -Over the same 1971-76 period, Manukau grew by 35.000, a rate of nearly 34 per cent. By the year 2001, it is now estimated, Manukau will be the only New Zealand city with more than 200,000 people; the figure could even be as- high as 275,000. Mr M. Chan, of the department’s Christchurch office, said that Manukau had a tremendous potential for growth. It was close to the hub of New Zealand’s industry and covered the biggest area of any city. The city population projections are based on mortality, fertility, and migration' figures over the last four periods covered by the national census, beginning 1956-61. The department gives three possible outcomes (high, low, and medium) for each of New Zealand’s 27 cities. The medium figure follows normal growth according to earlier patterns. The highs and lows are based largely on the extent of previous population fluctuations. Apart from historical considerations, major industrial developments are taken into account, especially in smaller areas. For Christchurch, only the official “city” has been considered in these projections. This means that neither Riccarton nor Waimairi has been looked at: Waimairi is big enough to be deemed a city but has not chosen to accept the designation. Also excluded from the analysis is Heathcote

County, most of Paparua County and outer areas such as Kaiapoi and Lyttelton. If future growth follows the patterns of “medium” increase, the number of people in most cities will rise. The exceptions are Auckland and Dunedin, Auckland dropping nearly 20,000 while adjoining areas mushroom. New Zealand’s six largest cities at the 1976 census were Christchurch (172,000), Auckland (150,000), Wellington (139,600), Manukau (139,100), Hamilton (88,000), and Dunedin (82,500). By the twenty-first century the order will have changed (taking the “medium” predictions) as follows: Manukau (245,500), Christchurch (178,800), Wellington (153,000), Hamilton (1 3 3,8 00 ), Auckland (133,700), then Takapuna (91,000). Of the five South Island ci-ties listed, only Dunedin seems fated to shrink, though Christchurch could lose more than 4000 people if the “low” rated variant proves correct. By comparison, the population of East Coast Bays could double and sizeable increases are likely in Takapuna, Birkenhead, Waitemata, Papakura, Hamilton, Napier, Hastings, and Palm-ers-ton North. Keeping to the “medium” prediction.- the South Island’s total city population will rise from 366,300 to 385,300, the North Island’s from 1,226,400 to 1,610,200.

In the South, Nelson alone can expect a growth of more ‘.han 20 per cent. In the North only Gisborne, Wanganui, Lower Hutt, Wellington and the central Auckland cities are likely to grow less than that amount.