Trying to govern Iran

Press, 16 July 1979, Page 16

Trying to govern Iran

Before he went his unwilling way from Iran the Shah said that, if he left, Iran would break up. That has not happened yet but the possibility is giving some concern to those who are, in their various ways, trying to govern the country. The latest row between the Minister of Defence, Mr Taqi Riahi, and the military police commander. General Saif Amir Rahimi, has, as one of the points at issue, control of the province of Khuzestan. General Rahimi wants to reinforce troops in the province, where oil pipelines were blown up during the week. Mr Riahi thinks that there are enough troops there already. General Rahimi is a stern opponent of more autonomy for the ethnic groupings in Iran. How the dispute between the two will be resolved and who will resolve it are both questions of considerable interest for the future of Iran.

A few days earlier Ayatollah Khomeiny intervened after General Rahimi had been dismissed by Mr Riahi for announcing an alleged Army plot to disrupt the Islamic republic. Judging by the promptness with which Mr Riahi reinstated General Rahimi it would seem clear that the authority of the Islamic side of the republic was undiminished. It was as clear a demonstration as any that the unofficial position Ayatollah Khomeiny holds as leader of Iran makes him the most powerful man in the country. A number of Iranians would like to see more of the Western tradition of a division between Church and State, but such a division is far from what Ayatollah Khomeiny has in mind.

About half of Iran’s population of 35 million people are not Iranians. The disarray of the revolution has aroused hopes for more autonomy among the Kurds, the Baluchis, the Arabs, who are in the south where the pipelines were

blown up, and others. Arms are held by hosts of people in Iran and no-one has the power to take them away. The fact that ethnic groups are able to back up their demands with arms complicates any return to order. The revolutionary committees which have sprung up all over Iran are also unwilling to surrender their weapons. The stage is set for further disaster in the confrontation between the Minister of Defence and the commander of the military police. Disorder in Iran is having an effect externally as well. The most startling effect has been on supplies of oil and the consequent rises in price. The pipelines blast may not affect supplies noticeably, but the success of the sabotage will no doubt be a lesson well learned by the group responsible and by other groups. Long-standing distrust between Iran and Iraq has led to suggestions that Iraq has been arming the Arabs in the south, just as the Iranians used to arm the Kurds in Iraq. On the northern border of Iran, the Soviet Union has watched events with some disapproval, and taken unkindly to remarks about Soviet interference among the Baluchis of the east and has reacted sharply to a suggestion that the Soviet Union should leave Afghanistan alone. This region has a confusing tradition of trading and smuggling and it would be surprising if arms were not among the contraband. The trouble lies in distinguishing between private enterprise and Government-backed interference. In the present conditions in Iran it is doubtful whether anyone could speak authoritatively on the subject of contraband, secret arms supplies, and legitimate trade; even if he were reliably informed it is doubtful whether he would be believed at home or abroad except when the information served someone’s cause.