THE PRESS TUESDAY, JANUARY 2, 1979. Worst crisis for West in 18 years

Press, 2 January 1979, Page 10

THE PRESS TUESDAY, JANUARY 2, 1979. Worst crisis for West in 18 years

Events in Iran are presenting the Western world with its most serious crisis since the Russians attempted to set up nuclear missiles in Cuba in 1962. At best the Shah of Iran, the West s most reliable ally in a region that produces half the oil of the non-Communist world, is going to continue in office as no more than a figurehead. At worst, Iran is going to subside into anarchy in which conflict between military commanders and reactionary Islamic leaders might continue for years.

Iran has become an attractive country for foreign intervention, and for confrontation between the United States and Russia. It is no longer a reliable military ally for the West: its important role as a source of stability in the Gulf area is finished: its huge oil deliveries to the West can no longer be assured. Without Iranian support other pro-Western oil producers, including Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States, will be reappraising their attitudes and loyalties The political crisis in Iran has wide ramifications: the new uncertainty about the supply of oil must affect the economies and the way of life in almost every Western country, including New Zealand.

Whoever may emerge as the new ruler, or rulers of Iran will still want to export oil. The country’s economy, even its ability to feed its people, depends on oil revenue. But the new rulers will not necessarily want to sell to the old markets. Some States, Israel and South Africa in particular, which have depended on Iran for the bulk of their essential oil imports, are going to be hard pressed Other States and Britain especially, have found in the export of sophisticated weapons and industrial technology to Iran a means to retrieve some of the wealth which has had to be paid out for oil. Much of the export of technology is likely to stop, either because the suppliers fear the use which any new Iranian Government might make of it, or because Iran’s fundamentalist Islamic leaders will want no part of it. The United States is said to have contingency plans to destroy some sophis-

ticated military equipment already supplied to the Shah's grandiose military macnine.

During 37 years on the throne the Shah has frequently been attacked as an autocratic ruler whose Ministers and police have resorted to dictatorial methods to maintain the political and social system. Yet by comparison with almost any of its neighbours, Iran has been developing into a relatively liberal society in which the wealth from oil has been used to promote vast social reforms as w'ell as to buy sophisticated weapons. Indeed, Iran was on the way to becoming a modern, democratic State before the wave of civil disturbances which began six months ago.

Compared with Pakistan and Afghanistan to the east, Russia to the north. Iraq to the west, or Saudi Arabia to the south, Iran has seemed an enlightened country determined to find a place in .the twentieth century commensurate with its wealth and proud traditions. The survival of the Shah’s achievements must be seriously imperilled if the country collapses into factious civil war or if a Government is formed from the religious fundamentalists. determined to set the clock back, who have been foremost in fomenting the opposition movements.

It may be weeks, or months, before the new shape of Iran, and its policies, becomes clear. In the meantime the West must expect that the United States and Britain will attempt to strengthen their presence in the Indian Ocean, if only to reassure other major oil suppliers there that the region has not been abandoned.

It is not too soon, or too alarmist, to suggest that countries which have depended on Iranian oil, including New Zealand, should be vigorous in seeking alternative sources of supply. Even more, events in Iran should give a new sense of urgency to the search for ways of reducing the use of energy derived from oil. Some years earlier than expected, the Iranian crisis is demonstrating how precarious the Western world’s supply of oil really is.